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MLB
Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins
Marlins
New York Mets
Mets
New York Mets
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV
55% Lean
55% Lean
MONEYLINE
Miami Marlins Miami Marlins None
EV / $100
-0.8
Win Prob
58%
Edge
-4.2%
TOTAL over 7.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 15.4% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$4321590 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (93% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 509 trades Kalshi: 8905 trades Largest: $49331
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +163.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
39.2%
ML
155 / -155

Player Props Engine

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Miami Marlins

New York Mets

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -162 / 136 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -156 / 140 -
Value Line - -177 / 138 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (275) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (138) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-105)
De-Vigged Fair Value 148 / -148 -148 / 148 O/U 102 / -102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Miami Marlins

A
Andrew Nardi
(RP) 15-day IL — The Marlins placed Nardi on the 15-day injured list Saturday with a left ribcage stress reaction, retroactive to Thursday
15-Day-IL
E
Eury Perez
(SP) 15-day IL — The Marlins placed Perez on the 15-day injured list Friday, retroactive to Thursday, due to a right gracilis strain.
15-Day-IL
G
Griffin Conine
(LF) 10-day IL — Conine (hamstring) appears to be a week or two away from beginning a rehab assignment, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kemp Alderman
(RF) day-to-day — Triple-A Jacksonville placed Alderman on the 7-day injured list Tuesday due to a left wrist injury, Michael Germanese of Roundtable.io reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Thomas White
(SP) day-to-day — Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix said Sunday that White is recovering from "a bit of a shoulder thing," Kyle Sielaff of Marlins.tv reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Robby Snelling
(SP) 60-day IL — Snelling underwent internal brace surgery Friday to repair a torn UCL in his left elbow.
60-Day-IL
R
Ronny Henriquez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Henriquez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jesus Tinoco
(RP) out — The Marlins re-signed Tinoco (elbow) to a minor-league contract Jan. 5.
Out
A
Adam Mazur
(SP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Mazur (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL

New York Mets

J
Jorge Polanco
(1B) 10-day IL — Polanco (Achilles) will play two more rehab games and could be activated from the 10-day injured list some time next week on the Mets' road trip, Andrew Tredinnick of The Bergen Record reports.
10-Day-IL
L
Luis Robert Jr.
(CF) 60-day IL — Robert was administered a series of injections for his injured back, Andrew Tredinnick of The Bergen Record reports.
60-Day-IL
F
Francisco Alvarez
(C) 10-day IL — Alvarez (knee) is going through full baseball activities and could be ready for a rehab assignment as soon as next week, Andrew Tredinnick of The Bergen Record reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Tyrone Taylor
(CF) 10-day IL — Taylor (hip) will be sent for an MRI, but the team expects that he'll require a stint on the injured list, Andrew Tredinnick of The Bergen Record reports.
10-Day-IL
F
Francisco Lindor
(SS) 10-day IL — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said Monday that Lindor (calf) has begun a running progression, Max Goodman of NJ.com reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kodai Senga
(SP) 15-day IL — Senga (back) gave up two earned runs on four hits and a walk over 3.1 innings in a rehab start for Single-A St. Lucie on Friday. He struck out two.
15-Day-IL
C
Clay Holmes
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets transferred Holmes (fibula) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) day-to-day — Tauchman (knee) is still rehabbing at the Mets' spring training complex and has yet to resume baseball activities, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
G
Grae Kessinger
(3B) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
J
Joe Jacques
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kevin Herget
(RP) day-to-day — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
N
Nick Burdi
(RP) day-to-day — The Red Sox reinstated Burdi (hip) from the injured list Saturday and optioned him to Triple-A Worcester.
Day-To-Day
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Nunez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.
60-Day-IL
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
R
Ronny Mauricio
(SS) 10-day IL — The Mets placed Mauricio (thumb) on the 10-day injured list Sunday.
10-Day-IL
J
Jose Rojas
(3B) day-to-day — Triple-A Salt Lake placed Rojas on its COVID-19 injured list Sunday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Megill (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Robert Stock
(RP) out — Stock (shoulder) said Sunday that he'll require surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome and could be sidelined for the remainder of the season, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
Out
Game Preview
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (275)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Andrew Nardi 15-Day-IL
Eury Perez 15-Day-IL
Jorge Polanco 10-Day-IL
Luis Robert Jr. 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Miami Marlins @ New York Mets

+-0.83 EV
per $100 wagered
Miami Marlins 55% Lean
OMEGA model sees no actionable edge on this game. Degraded data and no pitchers make this a ; over 7.5 has a Bayesian edge but historical total weakness and model flaws limit confidence to a lean.
58% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 58%
Book Implied 62%
Edge -4.2%
Line Movement
Open NYM -163 / Total 7.5
Current NYM -163 / Total 7.5
Movement No significant movement detected
No starting pitcher data available Injury impact: Home -10.6%, Away -8.7% (net home more affected) Data quality degraded (68%) – reduce confidence by 3 points
Our probability (57.8%) is below the breakeven win rate for -163 (62.0%), resulting in negative expected value. No edge on Mets moneyline.
FULL ANALYSIS
Data quality is degraded (68%) with no pitcher info, making this a low-confidence slate. Bayesian fusion shows a huge edge on the over (65.2% vs 50%), but the model's total projection (22.5) is clearly wrong, and totals are our weakest market historically. Sharp money slightly favors the Marlins on the moneyline, but the odds (+135) don't provide positive EV. Whale signals heavily on the Mets create a conflict. Best course is to pass on moneyline and take a small lean on the over with reduced units, acknowledging the risk.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 2.1% on moneyline favors away (Marlins). Whale signals contradict (93% on home), but per synthesis rules, default to sharp money. Prediction markets show minor divergence.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Miami Marlins None
-0.8 EV 55%
TOTAL over 7.5
+24.5 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Miami Marlins 135
  • Bayesian edge +4.2pp vs market prior, sharp money favors away, but odds (+135) require 42.55% win rate and our probability is 42.2% – EV slightly negative
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 7.5
  • Bayesian fusion posterior shows 65.2% over probability vs market 50%, implying +15.2pp edge
  • However, model agreement is VERY_LOW and omega line total (22.5) is absurd, casting doubt on the Poisson input
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Whales ($2.6M, 96% home) + prediction markets + sharp spread edge all point to Mets, but <1% ML edge means PASS or 0.5u only — no OMEGA play here.
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