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Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
New York Mets
Mets
New York Mets
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
66% Sharp Lean
66% Sharp Lean
MONEYLINE
Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates
"Pirates ML +135 (4.8 EV): 46% model win prob vs 43% fair line + Mets bullpen decimated early"
EV / $100
+4.8
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-4.0%
Size
1u
SPREAD Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 +1.5
63%
TOTAL Under 8.0 8.0
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Pittsburgh Pirates

New York Mets

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - -170 / 155 ↑ -
Pinnacle -1.5 (132) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 7.5 (100)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Pittsburgh Pirates

C
Chris Devenski
(RP) out — The Pirates reassigned Devenski (head) to minor-league camp Sunday.
Out
O
Oddanier Mosqueda
(RP) out — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Out
R
Ronny Simon
(2B) out — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Monday that Simon (shoulder) is projected to return to game competition in late March or early April, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Out
J
Jared Jones
(SP) 60-day IL — Pirates senior director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Monday that Jones (elbow) should be ready for game action when he's eligible to return from the 60-day injured list in late May, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Anthony Solometo
(SP) day-to-day — Solometo was pulled off his rehab assignment with Single-A Bradenton in late June after he experienced recurrent shoulder discomfort, Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
Day-To-Day

New York Mets

M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) out — Tauchman underwent surgery Thursday to repair the torn meniscus in his left knee, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
Out
A
A.J. Minter
(RP) 15-day IL — The Mets placed Minter (lat) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
N
Nate Lavender
(RP) day-to-day — Lavender (elbow) cleared outright waivers Wednesday and was returned to the Mets.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Waddell
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets outrighted Waddell to Triple-A Syracuse on Friday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Robert Stock
(RP) out — Stock experienced shoulder discomfort while playing with Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic and will undergo testing, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
Out
G
Grae Kessinger
(3B) out — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Kessinger will get imaging done after suffering a left knee injury in Friday's Grapefruit League game against the Cardinals, SNY Mets reports.
Out
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets transferred Nunez (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets and Megill (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.5 million contract Thursday, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (132)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Chris Devenski Out
Oddanier Mosqueda Out
Mike Tauchman Out
A.J. Minter 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets

+4.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Pittsburgh Pirates 66% Sharp Lean
"Pirates ML +135 (4.8 EV): 46% model win prob vs 43% fair line + Mets bullpen decimated early"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -4.0%
Line Movement
Open omega_model
Current PIT +135 / NYM -155 | Spread: PIT +1.5 (-120) / NYM -1.5 (+100) | Total: 8.0 (-110)
Movement N/A - model generated lines
+4.8 EV on PIT ML at model +135 vs implied 60.8% (true prob 46%)
Model: 57.1% win rate | n=21 — Based on N=21 graded MLB outcomes; small sample reduces confidence
FULL ANALYSIS
Model sees PIT ML +135 as +4.8 EV with 46% true win prob vs 43% no-vig implied; expected scores 3.9-4.2 favors Pirates +1.5 cover in 68% sims. Early season unders lean strong at 8.0 total given bullpen injuries both sides (Devenski/Minter out). Soto over 0.5 hits and Skenes K's 5.5+ have clean edges off leader stats.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Pittsburgh Pirates
+4.8 EV 66% 1u
SPREAD Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 +1.5
+3.2 EV 63% 0.5u
TOTAL Under 8.0 8.0
+2.9 EV 65% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 65%
New York Mets -155
  • Mets home ELO advantage (+45 rating) with Juan Soto slashing .500 early season
SPREAD PICK
● 62%
New York Mets
  • Expected score model: Mets 4.3 - Pirates 3.4 = 0.9 run edge in Citi Field
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 68%
UNDER 7.5 7.5
  • Citi Field suppresses runs (-0.4/game) + early season pitcher acclimation (combined ERA leaders 1.50)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Mets 58% win prob (+45 ELO) but Under 7.5 has +2.8 EV Citi Field suppression vs depleted Pirates pen
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