Home › English Premier League › Fulham @ Brentford
English Premier League
Fulham
Fulham
Fulham
Brentford
Brentford
Brentford
Full Game Analysis
English Premier League
Ω OMEGA PICK
57% Lean
57% Lean
SPREAD
Brentford Brentford -0.5
"Brentford home ML +110 (51% prob vs 47.6% breakeven, +7.1 EV) in tight matchup with no key absences"
EV / $100
+2.0
Win Prob
51%
Edge
+1.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Brentford None
59%
TOTAL under 2.5
54%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Fulham

Brentford

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - 113 / 248 ↑ -
Market Consensus -0.25 (-116) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 2.75 (-104)
De-Vigged Fair Value -112 / 112 -141 / 141 O/U 101 / -101
Line Movement
Open Current
Game Preview
Fulham @ Brentford
until kickoff
Current Line
Spread -0.25 (-116)
Total Over 2.75
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Fulham @ Brentford

+2.0 EV
per $100 wagered
Brentford 57% Lean Raw
"Brentford home ML +110 (51% prob vs 47.6% breakeven, +7.1 EV) in tight matchup with no key absences"
51% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 51%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +1.0%
Line Movement
Current Spread: Brentford -0.5 (+100) / Fulham +0.5 (-140); ML: Brentford +110 / Fulham +230; Total: 2.5 (-110)
Movement No significant line movement detected
+EV on Brentford ML at +110 as our 51% prob exceeds 47.6% breakeven by 3.4%
FULL ANALYSIS
Brentford +110 ML offers +7.1 EV with 51% win prob vs 47.6% breakeven on near-even records (13-8-11 vs 13-5-14). No injuries or situational flags but home venue edges out Kalshi's 53% Fulham lean. Cool 56F/9mph wind supports under 2.5 but totals unprofitable historically.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Brentford -0.5
+2.0 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Brentford None
+7.1 EV 59% 0.5u
TOTAL under 2.5
+1.2 EV 54%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 59%
Brentford 110
  • 51% home win prob exceeds +110 breakeven 47.6% with records near parity (Brentford 13-8-11 home edge)
SPREAD PICK
○ 57%
Brentford -0.5
  • Home win prob 51% vs +100 implied 50% breakeven in low-scoring EPL spot
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 54%
UNDER 2.5
  • 56F cool temps + 9mph wind lean under in EPL avg 2.7 goals game
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Fulham +0.5 (-140): Kalshi 53% vs market 52% home, London parity + prediction divergence = +1.8 EV
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