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MLB
San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants
Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +35.4% EV
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
"Dodgers -1.5 +35.4% EV on sharp divergence/RLM/whale steam vs overjuiced market; over 9.0 65% posterior (MC 19.5 total)"
EV / $100
+35.4
Win Prob
29%
Edge
-21.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE San Francisco Giants None
50%
TOTAL over 9.0
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 15.6% divergence on spread with strong signal. RLM detected on spread.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$981999 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (71% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 479 trades Kalshi: 113 trades Largest: $46695
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +286.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.5
Win Prob
45.5%
ML
120 / -120

Player Props Engine

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San Francisco Giants

Los Angeles Dodgers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -290 / 230 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -274 / 238 -
Value Line - -295 / 225 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (150) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (-125) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (103)
De-Vigged Fair Value -118 / 118 -259 / 259 O/U 110 / -110
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

San Francisco Giants

J
Jason Foley
(RP) 60-day IL — Foley (shoulder) will make his next rehab appearance for Triple-A Sacramento, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Erik Miller
(RP) 15-day IL — Miller (back) yielded one hit and struck out one over a scoreless frame in his first rehab appearance with Triple-A Sacramento on Sunday.
15-Day-IL
D
Daniel Susac
(C) 10-day IL — Susac (elbow) went 2-for-4 in Triple-A Sacramento's 2-1 loss to Reno on Friday.
10-Day-IL
L
Logan Webb
(SP) 15-day IL — The Giants placed Webb on the 15-day injured list Saturday due to right knee bursitis, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jared Oliva
(CF) 60-day IL — The Giants transferred Oliva (wrist) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
R
Rowan Wick
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Wick (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Hayden Birdsong
(RP) 60-day IL — Birdsong underwent successful UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reiver Sanmartin
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Sanmartin (hip) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
R
Randy Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Rodriguez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jose Butto
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants transferred Butto (arm) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL

Los Angeles Dodgers

B
Ben Casparius
(RP) 15-day IL — Casparius (shoulder) has been throwing at the Dodgers' complex in Arizona, per MLB.com.
15-Day-IL
E
Edwin Diaz
(RP) 60-day IL — no
60-Day-IL
B
Brock Stewart
(RP) 15-day IL — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters Saturday that he expects Stewart (foot) will be on the 15-day injured list for approximately three weeks, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Tommy Edman
(2B) 60-day IL — The Dodgers transferred Edman (ankle) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tyler Glasnow
(SP) 15-day IL — no
15-Day-IL
L
Landon Knack
(SP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers transferred Knack (chest) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
E
Evan Phillips
(RP) 60-day IL — Phillips (elbow) threw a bullpen session to a squatting catcher March 17, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
G
Gavin Stone
(SP) 60-day IL — Stone (shoulder) has resumed throwing, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
J
Jake Cousins
(RP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers transferred Cousins (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brusdar Graterol
(RP) 15-day IL — Graterol (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Oklahoma City on Saturday, Triple-A Oklahoma City broadcaster Alex Freedman reports.
15-Day-IL
E
Enrique Hernandez
(1B) 60-day IL — Hernandez (elbow) will kick of a minor-league rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Tuesday, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Bobby Miller
(SP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers placed Miller (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (150)
Total Over 9.0
Key Injuries
Jason Foley 60-Day-IL
Erik Miller 15-Day-IL
Ben Casparius 15-Day-IL
Edwin Diaz 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers

+35.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Los Angeles Dodgers 65% Sharp Lean
"Dodgers -1.5 +35.4% EV on sharp divergence/RLM/whale steam vs overjuiced market; over 9.0 65% posterior (MC 19.5 total)"
29% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 29%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -21.0%
Line Movement
Current LAD -1.5 -286 / SF +1.5 N/A | Total 9.0 | ML LAD -286 / SF +229
Movement No significant line movement detected
Slight calibrated edge to Giants ML (+3.1pp) erased by vig on +229 odds; heavy -286 juice kills Dodgers ML EV despite whale action
FULL ANALYSIS
Market overjuices Dodgers -286 run line (74% implied) vs omega even spread 0.0 and MC 47.9% Giants cover at 0; +35.4% EV home spread from Pinnacle fair 54.1% but whale $910K extreme home overrides model away lean. Total 9.0 laughably low vs MC 19.5 proj/65% over posterior, injuries gut both rotations. Sharp RLM home spread + prediction mkt confirms despite Bayesian -3.1pp home ML.
SHARP MONEY
Strong RLM + 15.6% sharp edge on spread home; +35.4% EV on home spread vs Bovada; ML moderate away but overall home convergence
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
+35.4 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE San Francisco Giants None
-4.6 EV 50%
TOTAL over 9.0
+24.5 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
San Francisco Giants 229
  • Bayesian posterior 29.0% vs market 25.9% (+3.1pp edge); omega ML away -120; MC 47.9% away win
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
  • +35.4% EV per Pinnacle de-vigged fair value (54.1% cover) vs retail; strong RLM sharp signal
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 9.0
  • Posterior 65.2% over vs 50% implied (+15.2pp); MC proj 19.5 total, omega 22.5 vs market 9.0
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Giants +2.2 (56% cover, +6pp edge vs Omega 0.0) + Over 9.5 (+15pp, model 22.5 total)
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