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MLB
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
Boston Red Sox
Sox
Boston Red Sox
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +49.8% EV
59% Lean
59% Lean
SPREAD
Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox -2.2
"Red Sox -2.2 +3.8 EV from 14.2% sharp spread edge + injury net (+3.7%), whales faded"
EV / $100
+3.8
Win Prob
58%
Edge
+7.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Boston Red Sox None
60%
TOTAL under 8.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 20.3% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$420421 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 169 trades Kalshi: 59 trades Largest: $40368

Player Props Engine

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Detroit Tigers

Boston Red Sox

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 139 / -165 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 143 / -159 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-310) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-124) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.0 (-120)
De-Vigged Fair Value -117 / 117 152 / -152 O/U -112 / 112
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Detroit Tigers

Z
Zach McKinstry
(3B) 10-day IL — The Tigers placed McKinstry on the 10-day injured list Friday with left hip/abdominal inflammation.
10-Day-IL
J
Justin Verlander
(SP) 15-day IL — Manager A.J. Hinch said Thursday that Verlander's recovery from hip inflammation is "going a little slower than I think he anticipated or we anticipated," Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Bailey Horn
(RP) 15-day IL — The Tigers paused Horn's (elbow) rehab assignment Tuesday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Troy Melton
(RP) 60-day IL — Melton (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Beau Brieske
(RP) 60-day IL — Brieske (groin) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Parker Meadows
(CF) 60-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said that Meadows underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a left radius fracture and will be sidelined "multiple months," Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Trey Sweeney
(SS) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Sweeney (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
S
Scott Effross
(RP) day-to-day — Effross (oblique) will throw a bullpen session Friday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Tyler Owens
(SP) day-to-day — Owens (hip) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Lakeland on Saturday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Troy Watson
(SP) day-to-day — Watson is scheduled to begin a throwing program Monday as he works his way back from arthroscopic right elbow surgery, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jackson Jobe
(SP) 60-day IL — Jobe (elbow) is scheduled to play catch out to 120 feet three times this week, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Dugan Darnell
(RP) day-to-day — The Tigers announced Sunday that Darnell (hip) has been playing catch five times a week and is also taking part in a running progression, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Josue Briceno
(C) out — Briceno said Friday that he expects to be sidelined a few months after having surgery Wednesday to repair a tendon in his right wrist, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Out
R
Reese Olson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday following a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.
60-Day-IL

Boston Red Sox

K
Kutter Crawford
(SP) 15-day IL — Manager Alex Cora said Friday that Crawford (wrist/forearm) will likely require an MRI on his injured forearm, Chris Henrique of BostonSportsJournal.com reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Triston Casas
(1B) 10-day IL — Casas (knee) was diagnosed with an abdominal strain Tuesday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Johan Oviedo
(SP) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Oviedo (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Patrick Sandoval
(SP) 15-day IL — Sandoval (elbow) allowed three unearned runs on three hits and three walks while striking out three over 3.1 innings for Triple-A Worcester on Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
J
Justin Slaten
(RP) 15-day IL — The Red Sox placed Slaten on the 15-day injured list Wednesday due to a right oblique strain.
15-Day-IL
B
Brendan Rodgers
(2B) out — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.
Out
H
Hobie Harris
(RP) day-to-day — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Monday that Harris has been shut down due to forearm tightness, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Romy Gonzalez
(1B) 60-day IL — Gonzalez will have his left shoulder injury evaluated Tuesday to determine whether he needs to undergo surgery, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Houck
(SP) 60-day IL — Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-310)
Total Over 7.0
Key Injuries
Zach McKinstry 10-Day-IL
Justin Verlander 15-Day-IL
Kutter Crawford 15-Day-IL
Triston Casas 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox

+3.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Boston Red Sox 59% Lean Calibrated
"Red Sox -2.2 +3.8 EV from 14.2% sharp spread edge + injury net (+3.7%), whales faded"
58% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 58%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +7.5%
Line Movement
Current Boston -2.2 / Detroit +2.2 | O/U 8.0 | ML Boston -129 / Detroit +112
Movement No significant movement
+2.1 EV on home ML at -129; breakeven 56.3% exceeded by 1.2%
Model: 51.8% win rate | n=552 — ML profitable in Lean/Strong tiers; vs BOS 18-13 good, vs DET 17-21 poor; reduce all conf
FULL ANALYSIS
Boston holds 57.5% win prob edge from Bayesian fusion and +3.7% net injury impact despite degraded data. Sharp money strongly backs home -2.2 cover (14.2% edge) over whale away action—default to Pinnacle. Total neutral but model totals hit 48.7% historically, fade aggression.
SHARP MONEY
Strong 14.2% sharp edge on home spread despite ML sharp lean away; default to Pinnacle sharp spread signal over whales
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Boston Red Sox -2.2
+3.8 EV 59% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Boston Red Sox None
+2.1 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 8.0
+1.2 EV 55%
MONEYLINE PICK
● 60%
Boston Red Sox -129
  • Bayesian posterior 57.5% vs 56.3% implied + home injury advantage (-7.8% vs -11.5%)
SPREAD PICK
○ 59%
Boston Red Sox -2.2
  • Sharp 14.2% divergence favors home cover + net injury edge (+3.7%)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 8.0
  • Pinnacle fair value under 50.5% in neutral total market
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Tigers ML +1.2 EV (52% model vs 31% Kalshi) w/ $156k EXTREME whale steam
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