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Detroit Red Wings
Detroit Red Wings
Wings
Philadelphia Flyers
Flyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers -0.5
"PHI ML -115 (+3.2EV): Home ice + leaders Konecny/Tippett vs DET injuries, model 55% vs 53.5% implied"
EV / $100
+2.8
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+5.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Flyers None
67%
TOTAL under 5.5
54%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Detroit Red Wings

Philadelphia Flyers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Bovada - -112 / -108 ↑ -
Bovada 2.5 (-625) - -
Bovada - - Over 2.5 (-165)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Detroit Red Wings

M
Michael Rasmussen
(C) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day

Philadelphia Flyers

N
Nikita Grebenkin
(RW) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
T
Ty Murchison
(D) out — out
Out
R
Rodrigo Abols
(C) Injured Reserve — Abols' injury is a fractured right ankle, Kevin Kurz of The Athletic reports Wednesday.
Injured Reserve
Game Preview
Detroit Red Wings @ Philadelphia Flyers
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread 2.5 (-625)
Total Over 2.5
Key Injuries
Michael Rasmussen Day-To-Day
Nikita Grebenkin Day-To-Day
Ty Murchison Out
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Detroit Red Wings @ Philadelphia Flyers

+2.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Philadelphia Flyers 64% Sharp Lean
"PHI ML -115 (+3.2EV): Home ice + leaders Konecny/Tippett vs DET injuries, model 55% vs 53.5% implied"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +5.0%
Line Movement
Current PHI -115 ML / DET -105 ML | Total 5.5 | Spread PHI -115 (215/-265)
Movement No movement data
Small edge on PHI ML after vig removal; breakeven 53.5% vs our 55% model prob
Model: 43.4% win rate | n=122 — NHL 53-69 (43%); recent 7d -18u; poor vs DET (1-5), PHI (3-4); cap props at 60 unvalidated
FULL ANALYSIS
Pick'em market undervalues PHI home ice (1.02x) with Konecny (65pts)/Tippett (27G) peaking vs DET Rasmussen DTD; recent 3/29 H2H DET ML/Under both lost confirming PHI edge. Model 55% PHI win prob vs 53.5% implied (+1.5% edge) at -115. Totals losing league-wide but 5.5 fits low-scoring PHI home trends.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Philadelphia Flyers -0.5
+2.8 EV 64% 1u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Flyers None
+3.2 EV 67% 1u
TOTAL under 5.5
+1.1 EV 54% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 65%
Philadelphia Flyers -207
  • ELO gives PHI 53% win prob vs Poisson 24%, blended to 67.5% matching model ML
SPREAD PICK
● 62%
Philadelphia Flyers -0.5 (-110)
  • Omega spread 0.0 but ELO estimates PHI -0.9; minor PHI edge in even-goal matchup
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 60%
UNDER 19.0 19.0
  • Model projects exactly 19.2 combined goals; recent H2H under 6.0 lost but fits low-scoring trend
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Even 9.6-9.6 goals kill total EV; PHI ML -207 fair per ELO blend but 0.0 edge, model 45% NHL forces all PASS
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