Home › MLB › Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
MLB
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +52.7% EV
59% Lean
59% Lean
SPREAD
Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
"Rays ML +8.5pp Bayesian edge w/ extreme whales/sharps; Over 8 +15pp as models see 20+ runs"
EV / $100
+8.2
Win Prob
60%
Edge
+9.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
60%
TOTAL over 8.0
57%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 19.1% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1816362 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 475 trades Kalshi: 164 trades Largest: $78150
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +126.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
27.6%
ML
263 / -263

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Tampa Bay Rays

Toronto Blue Jays

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 103 / -123 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 108 / -120 -
Value Line - -104 / -121 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-420) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-161) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-104)
De-Vigged Fair Value -152 / 152 114 / -114 O/U 103 / -103
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Tampa Bay Rays

C
Chandler Simpson
(LF) day-to-day — Simpson went 1-for-4 with a walk, a double and a stolen base in Tuesday's 1-0 win over the Guardians.
Day-To-Day
A
Austin Vernon
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays have shut Vernon down from throwing due to right elbow soreness, per MLB.com.
Day-To-Day
J
Joe Boyle
(SP) 15-day IL — Boyle (elbow) struck out four over two scoreless innings in his first rehab start Wednesday with Triple-A Durham.
15-Day-IL
S
Steven Wilson
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rays placed Wilson (back) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
S
Steven Matz
(SP) 15-day IL — Matz's (elbow) stint on the 15-day injured list is not expected to last long, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
15-Day-IL
L
Logan Driscoll
(C) day-to-day — The Rays released Driscoll (ankle) on Friday, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Keyshawn Askew
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
R
Ryan Pepiot
(SP) 60-day IL — Pepiot will undergo surgery on his right hip May 13 and miss the rest of the 2026 season, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tre' Morgan
(1B) day-to-day — Triple-A Durham placed Morgan on the 7-day injured list with a quad injury, Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Alfredo Zarraga
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
J
John Rooney
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays signed Rooney (elbow) to a minor-league contract Nov. 15.
Day-To-Day
M
Michael Grove
(RP) 60-day IL — Grove (shoulder) is scheduled to face hitters this weekend, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Manuel Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rays placed Rodriguez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
E
Edwin Uceta
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rays transferred Uceta (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
T
TJ Nichols
(P) day-to-day — Double-A Montgomery placed Nichols on its 7-day injured list April 7 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
G
Gavin Lux
(LF) 10-day IL — Lux (shoulder/ankle) is tracking toward a return during the Rays' series in Boston this weekend, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
10-Day-IL

Toronto Blue Jays

N
Nathan Lukes
(RF) 10-day IL — Lukes (hamstring) is scheduled to resume running the bases before the end of this week, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
10-Day-IL
M
Max Scherzer
(SP) 15-day IL — Scherzer (forearm) will receive a cortisone injection after experiencing a recurrence of right thumb discomfort, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yimi Garcia
(RP) 60-day IL — The Blue Jays announced Tuesday that Garcia's (elbow) next rehab outing in the rookie-level Florida Complex League will be delayed for at least a couple of days, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Addison Barger
(RF) 10-day IL — Barger will undergo an MRI on his right elbow after waking up Sunday with limited range of motion, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
F
Fernando Perez
(P) Developmental List
developmental list
S
Shane Bieber
(SP) 60-day IL — Bieber (elbow) will face live hitters Tuesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jose Berrios
(SP) 15-day IL — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said Friday that an MRI on Berrios' right elbow showed inflammation and "small changes to that initial injury with the elbow," Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Geovanny Jesus Planchart
(C) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
C
Chay Yeager
(RP) day-to-day — Yeager will undergo season-ending UCL surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Anthony Santander
(RF) 60-day IL — Toronto transferred Santander (shoulder) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
60-Day-IL
C
CJ Stubbs
(C) day-to-day — The Blue Jays signed Stubbs to a minor-league contract Friday that includes an invitation to spring training.
Day-To-Day
L
Lazaro Estrada
(RP) 15-day IL — The Blue Jays placed Estrada on the MLB 15-day injured list April 5 with a right shoulder impingement, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Javen Coleman
(P) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
C
Cody Ponce
(SP) 60-day IL — Ponce underwent surgery Friday to repair the ACL in his right knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Bowden Francis
(SP) 60-day IL — The Blue Jays placed Francis (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
A
Alejandro Kirk
(C) 10-day IL — Kirk (thumb) is expected to begin hitting this weekend, Brian Murphy of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
Game Preview
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-420)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Chandler Simpson Day-To-Day
Austin Vernon Day-To-Day
Nathan Lukes 10-Day-IL
Max Scherzer 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays

+8.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Tampa Bay Rays 59% Lean
"Rays ML +8.5pp Bayesian edge w/ extreme whales/sharps; Over 8 +15pp as models see 20+ runs"
60% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 60%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +9.5%
Line Movement
Current Rays -1.5 -126 / Blue Jays +1.5 +105 (est), ML Rays -126 / Blue Jays +104, Total 8.0
Movement No significant movement detected
Injury net: +1.9% home edge (both sides poor quality injuries)
Positive EV on Rays ML; massive on total over due to model/market total gap
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion gives Rays 59.5% ML prob vs 51% market (+8.5pp) confirmed by strong sharp spread divergence (18.9%) and extreme $1.8M whale volume on away. Total market stuck at 8.0 despite MC 20.2/omega 22.5 exp score (+15.2pp over posterior, N=10k sims). Injuries net minor home edge but degraded data/no pitchers cap at leans; ML favored over spreads.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp spread edge 18.9% away (strong), ML 1.9% away (moderate); +52% EV spread away vs Bovada
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
+8.2 EV 59% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
+6.8 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.0
+24.5 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
Tampa Bay Rays -126
  • Bayesian posterior 59.5% Rays vs market 51% (+8.5pp edge); exceeds -126 breakeven 55.8% by 3.7pp
SPREAD PICK
○ 59%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
  • Sharp 18.9% spread edge favoring Rays cover + +52% EV vs Bovada fair value (39.6% away cover)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 57%
OVER 8.0
  • Posterior 65.2% over 8.0 vs 50% implied (+15.2pp); MC 20.2 exp score, omega 22.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Rays 61% posterior + $1.5M extreme whales vs even spread (+16.5 EV); MC 74% under 22.5 total
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700

SIGNAL · LIVE