Serie A
Udinese
Udinese
Cagliari
Cagliari
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAUdinese
Cagliari
ELO Model Lines
MODELSpread
-2.1
Moneyline
CAG 134
/
UDI -134
Win Probability
43%
-
57%
ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Udinese @ Cagliari
+-1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Udinese
55%
Lean
"Zero Bayesian edge on Udinese 60% ML (-185 too juiced); home +150 breakeven exact match in low-data spot"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
60%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+10.0%
Line Movement
Current
CAG -0.5 (H +140 / A -195); ML H +150 / A -185; Total 2.5
Movement
No significant movement
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion shows dead-even 60% Udinese ML posterior vs de-vigged market, zero edge after vig. No injuries, travel, or sharp signals; poor data (24% quality) caps conviction. Soccer totals historically unprofitable (47% Lean WR), default under 2.5 lean but PASS.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
55%
Cagliari 150
- Home ML +150 matches exact 40% posterior; breakeven hit with de-vig
SPREAD PICK
○
55%
Udinese 0.5
- Bayesian posterior 60% Udinese +0.5 cover aligns with market but heavy juice at -195
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
50%
UNDER 2.5
- Serie A avg ~2.4 goals/game; totals losing historically (47.4% Lean tier)
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Model-market alignment 59% Udinese but -190 juice = -9.6 EV; PASS all, no exploitable edge
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