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MLB
San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants
Giants
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +10.4% EV
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
"Rays ML +5% Bayesian edge & +10EV, sharps/RLM/extreme whales ($799k) converge vs juiced Giants line"
EV / $100
+2.1
Win Prob
57%
Edge
+6.9%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
57%
TOTAL over 7.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 6.0% divergence on ML with strong signal. RLM detected on moneyline.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$802405 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (90% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 184 trades Kalshi: 1110 trades Largest: $18973
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +112.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
43.8%
ML
129 / -129

Player Props Engine

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San Francisco Giants

Tampa Bay Rays

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -105 / -115 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -135 / 125 -
Value Line - -107 / -122 -
Market Consensus -1.5 (157) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-112)
De-Vigged Fair Value 167 / -167 -130 / 130 O/U -106 / 106
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

San Francisco Giants

J
Jared Oliva
(CF) 60-day IL — Oliva underwent left hamate bone surgery Thursday in Los Angeles, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Daniel Susac
(C) 10-day IL — Susac (elbow) has begun a hitting program and is expected to resume throwing later this week, per MLB.com.
10-Day-IL
J
Jason Foley
(RP) 60-day IL — Foley (shoulder) is throwing live batting practice Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Harrison Bader
(CF) 10-day IL — Bader (hamstring) was cleared to resume running the bases Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jose Butto
(RP) 60-day IL — Butto underwent surgery Saturday to repair an artery in his right arm, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
60-Day-IL
S
Sam Hentges
(RP) 15-day IL — Hentges (knee/shoulder) struck out one in a scoreless inning during Triple-A Sacramento's 7-6 win over Tacoma on Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
J
Joel Peguero
(RP) 15-day IL — Peguero (hamstring) earned a hold and struck out two in a scoreless inning during Triple-A Sacramento's 5-3 win over Las Vegas on Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
H
Hayden Birdsong
(RP) 60-day IL — Birdsong underwent successful UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reiver Sanmartin
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Sanmartin (hip) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
R
Rowan Wick
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Wick (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Randy Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Giants placed Rodriguez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Justice delos Santos of The San Jose Mercury News reports.
60-Day-IL

Tampa Bay Rays

M
Mason Englert
(RP) 15-day IL — Englert (forearm) is set to throw a bullpen session Sunday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joe Boyle
(SP) 15-day IL — Boyle (elbow) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session Sunday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yandy Diaz
(1B) day-to-day — Diaz went 1-for-3 with a walk and a two-run home run during the Rays' 4-2 win over the Twins on Sunday.
Day-To-Day
R
Ryan Pepiot
(SP) 60-day IL — Pepiot will undergo surgery on his right hip May 13 and miss the rest of the 2026 season, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Gavin Lux
(LF) 10-day IL — Lux (shoulder/ankle) went 1-for-3 with two walks and a run scored Tuesday in a rehab game for Triple-A Durham.
10-Day-IL
G
Garrett Cleavinger
(RP) 15-day IL — Rays manager Kevin Cash said Monday that Cleavinger (calf) is on track to rejoin the active roster "closer to the weekend," Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
15-Day-IL
E
Edwin Uceta
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rays transferred Uceta (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
T
TJ Nichols
(P) day-to-day — Double-A Montgomery placed Nichols on its 7-day injured list April 7 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
T
Tre' Morgan
(1B) day-to-day — Triple-A Durham activated Morgan (quadricep) from its 7-day injured list Tuesday.
Day-To-Day
A
Alfredo Zarraga
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
K
Keyshawn Askew
(RP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
M
Michael Grove
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rays signed Grove to a major-league contract Tuesday and placed him on the 15-day injured list due to right shoulder surgery.
60-Day-IL
A
Austin Vernon
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays have shut Vernon down from throwing due to right elbow soreness, per MLB.com.
Day-To-Day
T
Ty Johnson
(SP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
S
Steven Wilson
(RP) 60-day IL — Wilson said Sunday that his lower back has responded well to an injection, and he hopes to be ready to make his season debut shortly after Opening Day, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
J
John Rooney
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays signed Rooney (elbow) to a minor-league contract Nov. 15.
Day-To-Day
L
Logan Driscoll
(C) day-to-day — The Rays released Driscoll (ankle) on Friday, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Manuel Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — Rodriguez will have right elbow surgery Aug. 8 to address a flexor tendon repair, and his UCL will be evaluated during the surgery to determine if any additional procedures are needed, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
San Francisco Giants @ Tampa Bay Rays
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (157)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Jared Oliva 60-Day-IL
Daniel Susac 10-Day-IL
Mason Englert 15-Day-IL
Joe Boyle 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

San Francisco Giants @ Tampa Bay Rays

+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Tampa Bay Rays 55% Lean
"Rays ML +5% Bayesian edge & +10EV, sharps/RLM/extreme whales ($799k) converge vs juiced Giants line"
57% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 57%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +6.9%
Line Movement
Current Giants -1.5 -112 / Rays +1.5 -108; ML Rays -108 / Giants -112; Total 7.5 -110
Movement No significant movement
+10.4% EV on Rays ML per +EV analysis; exceeds breakeven 51.9% by 5pp
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian edge +5% Rays ML (56.9% posterior vs 51.9% implied) with +10.4% EV at -108, confirmed by sharp 6% divergence/RLM and extreme $799k whale volume (90% home). Injuries hit Rays harder (-9.7%) but omega even spread 0.0 vs Giants -1.5 offers RL value; MC 19.1 total crushes 7.5 line (65% over). Very low model agreement and degraded data cap confidence; PM divergence to away noted but overruled by Tier 1/2 convergence.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 6.0% on home ML with RLM detected; strong divergence signal
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
+2.1 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
+9.6 EV 57% 0.5u
TOTAL over 7.5
+12.1 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 57%
Tampa Bay Rays -108
  • Bayesian posterior 56.9% home win vs market 51.9% (+5pp edge)
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market Giants -1.5; MC margin -0.5 favors Rays covering +1.5
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 7.5
  • Posterior 65.2% over 7.5 vs market 50% (+15pp); MC projects 19.1 total
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Rays -2.2: +54% EV vs Pinnacle + $660k extreme whales (93%) on contrarian spread divergence
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