Home › Mixed Martial Arts › Allan Nascimento @ Mitch Raposo
Mixed Martial Arts
Allan Nascimento
Allan Nascimento
Nascimento
Mitch Raposo
Raposo
Mitch Raposo
Full Game Analysis
Mixed Martial Arts
Ω OMEGA PICK
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Mitch Raposo Mitch Raposo 0.0
"Raposo ML +3.1 EV on minor whale home signal in even flyweight grappler spot"
EV / $100
+3.1
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+4.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Mitch Raposo None
55%
TOTAL under 2.5
52%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$2574 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (100% of whale volume).
Whales: home Kalshi: 19 trades Largest: $570

Player Props Engine

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Allan Nascimento

Mitch Raposo

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
MIT -100 / ALL -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
Allan Nascimento @ Mitch Raposo
until tip-off
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Allan Nascimento @ Mitch Raposo

+3.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Mitch Raposo 55% Lean Raw
"Raposo ML +3.1 EV on minor whale home signal in even flyweight grappler spot"
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +4.0%
Line Movement
Current omega_model: Spread 0 / ML -110/-110 / Total 2.5
Movement No movement (pre-market)
Small edge at -110 model price; exceeds breakeven by 1.6%
FULL ANALYSIS
Even grappler matchup at 50/50 Bayesian posterior but minor $2.5K whale volume (100% home) creates 1.6% edge at model -110. Flyweights average 2.3 rounds (58% under 2.5). Data poor (21% quality), confidence slashed 7 pts; prefer ML over spread.
SHARP MONEY
Minor whale volume ($2,478 total, minor tier) at 100% on home despite 0 profitable wallets
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Mitch Raposo 0.0
+3.1 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Mitch Raposo None
+3.1 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL under 2.5
+0.8 EV 52%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Mitch Raposo -110
  • 54% model win prob exceeds -110 breakeven (52.4%) by 1.6% on whale alignment
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Mitch Raposo 0.0
  • Model even spread with minor whale signal on home providing 1.6% prob edge
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 52%
UNDER 2.5
  • Flyweight avg fight time 11:45 (under 2.5 rounds 58% historical)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Nascimento grappling edge (65% prob vs -150 implied 60%, +8.3 EV) in ranked vs unranked flyweight clash
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