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New York Yankees
New York Yankees
Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV ALIGNED
62% Lean
62% Lean
SPREAD
Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
"Rays moneyline at -115 vs implied 61.2% model edge — +9.2 EV per $100 with sharp confirmation and whale contrarian setup"
EV / $100
+6.8
Win Prob
61%
Edge
+7.7%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
64%
TOTAL over 7.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 13.8% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$230927 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 88 trades Kalshi: 1 trades Largest: $16964
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: -1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
47.1%
ML
112 / -112

Player Props Engine

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New York Yankees

Tampa Bay Rays

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -118 / -102 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -113 / 103 -
Value Line - -120 / -105 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (375) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (187) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (104)
De-Vigged Fair Value 203 / -203 -108 / 108 O/U 112 / -112
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Yankees

J
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
(2B) day-to-day — Chisholm was diagnosed with right big toe discomfort after leaving Sunday's game against the Twins and having X-rays come back negative.
Day-To-Day
M
Max Fried
(SP) 15-day IL — Fried (elbow) threw a successful 36-pitch live batting practice session Sunday and will face hitters again Thursday or Friday before embarking on a rehab assignment, Jorge Castillo of ESPN.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Rodon
(SP) 15-day IL — Rodon said his UCL is intact, but he's dealing with "heavy inflammation" in his left elbow, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Giancarlo Stanton
(DH) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said that Stanton (calf) has restarted a running program and will take live at-bats against rehabbing left-hander Max Fried (elbow) on Tuesday, David Lennon of Newsday reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Aaron Judge
(RF) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Friday that Judge isn't expected to be ready for a re-evaluation later this week, when he'll be at the four-week mark in his recovery from a stress fracture of the first rib on his right side, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) tossed a side session Wednesday and is "a couple of weeks" away from facing live hitters, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL

Tampa Bay Rays

J
Jesse Scholtens
(RP) 15-day IL — Scholtens (wrist) completed a 20-pitch bullpen session June 8 but is without a clear target date for a return, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jake Fraley
(RF) 10-day IL — Fraley (hernia) began a rehab assignment with the rookie-level Florida Complex League on Saturday, going 0-for-3 as the designated hitter.
10-Day-IL
S
Steven Matz
(SP) 15-day IL — The Rays placed Matz on the 15-day injured list Thursday with a left ankle sprain.
15-Day-IL
E
Edwin Uceta
(RP) 60-day IL — Manager Kevin Cash said Friday that Uceta (shoulder) will resume his throwing program sometime around June 29, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Manuel Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — Manager Kevin Cash said Friday that Rodriguez (elbow) will begin throwing live batting practice June 30, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Gavin Lux
(LF) 60-day IL — Lux (shoulder) is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment June 29, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jonathan Heasley
(RP) 60-day IL — Heasley was returned to the major-league roster and placed on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with a right elbow stress reaction.
60-Day-IL
S
Steven Wilson
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rays hope Wilson (back) will be able to start bullpen sessions June 8, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Ryan Pepiot
(SP) 60-day IL — Pepiot will undergo surgery on his right hip May 13 and miss the rest of the 2026 season, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (375)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Day-To-Day
Max Fried 15-Day-IL
Jesse Scholtens 15-Day-IL
Jake Fraley 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays

+6.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Tampa Bay Rays 62% Lean
"Rays moneyline at -115 vs implied 61.2% model edge — +9.2 EV per $100 with sharp confirmation and whale contrarian setup"
61% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 61%
Book Implied 54%
Edge +7.7%
Line Movement
Open Total 7.5, Spread 1.5 (N/A), Moneyline home -115 / away -104
Current Total 7.5, Moneyline home -115 / away -104
Movement No significant line movement detected.
Strong positive EV on home moneyline. 61.2% vs 53.5% market implied = +7.7pp edge, yielding +$9.20 per $100 wagered.
FULL ANALYSIS
Massive model-market divergence on total (Omega 22.5 vs market 7.5) suggests the book is pricing for pitcher-duel conditions we can't confirm without starter data. Bayesian fusion gives home 61.2% moneyline edge (+7.7pp) with strong sharp signal on home side despite extreme whale volume ($230K) betting away. The over is the best pure edge play (+15.2pp), but data degradation forces conservative sizing. Home moneyline is the highest-conviction pick given sharp alignment and extreme +EV on the spread at retail books.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 14.2% on spread favoring home with strong signal. +EV analysis shows spread home on Bovada at +385 offers +50% EV vs fair value. Whale volume is extreme ($230K) but favors away — contradicting sharp books. Defaulting to sharp book signal (Pinnacle) as more efficient.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
+6.8 EV 62% 1u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
+9.2 EV 64% 1.5u
TOTAL over 7.5
+15.2 EV 60% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 64%
Tampa Bay Rays -115
  • Bayesian fusion posterior 61.2% vs market 53.5% = +7.7pp edge
  • Model agreement is VERY_LOW but posterior is fused from ELO+Poisson
  • Sharp signal strongly favors home
  • Whale volume is extreme ($230K) but favors away — a contrarian setup that usually sharpens home value
SPREAD PICK
○ 62%
Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
  • Bayesian spread cover posterior 54% with +3.9pp edge; sharp +EV analysis shows home spread at Bovada offers +50% EV, but market spread is only 1.5 with home -110 — slow to adjust
  • Home cover probability anchored by strong model divergence
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 7.5
  • Bayesian total posterior shows OVER 65.2% vs market 50.0% = +15.2pp edge
  • Omega model projected total is 22.5 — massive discrepancy
  • Monte Carlo projects scores 10.3-9.5 (total 19.8)
  • Even accounting for unknown pitchers, the market total of 7.5 is absurdly low
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Bayesian fusion shows +8.2% edge on Rays ML but whale money sharply opposes; degraded data and absurd total line recommend avoidance or tiny position.
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