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Milwaukee Brewers
Injury Report
San Diego Padres
Yuki Matsui
(RP)
out — Manager Craig Stammen said Friday that Matsui (groin) will begin the season on the injured list, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports.
Out
Sung-Mun Song
(3B)
day-to-day — Padres manager Craig Stammen said Sunday that Song (oblique) has resumed swinging a bat, per 97.3 The Fan.
Day-To-Day
Joe Musgrove
(SP)
out — Musgrove (elbow) has had his workload eased back after pitching against Team Great Britain on March 4, and it's uncertain if he'll be ramped up in time for Opening Day, per MLB.com.
Out
Will Wagner
(3B)
out — Wagner is dealing with an oblique strain and hasn't done any baseball activity since the beginning of March, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Out
Matt Waldron
(SP)
out — Waldron (lower body) threw "about 25 pitches" in a live batting-practice session Thursday, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Out
Bryan Hoeing
(RP)
out — Hoeing (elbow) will undergo flexor tendon surgery and miss the entire 2026 season, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Out
Jhony Brito
(RP)
60-day IL — Brito (forearm) has been throwing bullpens in Padres camp, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
Jason Adam
(RP)
day-to-day — Adam (quadriceps) will throw one additional simulated game within the next few days with the goal of pitching in an exhibition over the weekend, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day
Griffin Canning
(SP)
out — Canning (Achilles) tossed a "high-intensity" bullpen session Tuesday, and his next step could be facing hitters, per MLB.com.
Out
Blake Hunt
(C)
day-to-day — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day
Milwaukee Brewers
Kyle Harrison
(RP)
day-to-day — Harrison was removed during the third inning of Wednesday's Cactus League game against the Angels due to a blister on his left index finger, Sophia Minnaert of FanDuel Sports Network Wisconsin reports.
Day-To-Day
Brandon Woodruff
(SP)
day-to-day — Woodruff (lat) said Friday that his status for Opening Day remains "up in the air," Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Craig Yoho
(RP)
out — The Brewers announced Wednesday that Yoho has been diagnosed with a low-grade right soleus strain and is projected to return to action in mid-April, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Out
Rob Zastryzny
(RP)
out — The Brewers activated Zastryzny (ribs) from the 15-day injured list Friday.
Out
Quinn Priester
(SP)
out — Priester (wrist) said Friday that he's hoping to be ready to pitch in games by "late April, May," Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Out
Akil Baddoo
(LF)
out — Manager Pat Murphy revealed Thursday that Baddoo's left quadriceps injury is worse than initially believed and he will miss at least three to four weeks, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Out
Thomas Pannone
(RP)
day-to-day — Pannone was diagnosed with a torn flexor tendon in his left forearm Saturday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J.B. Bukauskas
(RP)
day-to-day — Bukauskas will undergo surgery on his injured right lat and be sidelined for 9-to-10 months, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
Eduardo Garcia
(OF)
out
Out
Steward Berroa
(RF)
day-to-day — Brewers manager Pat Murphy said Saturday that Berroa is dealing with a sore shoulder, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
Gerson Garabito
(RP)
out — Garabito will be out for four months after undergoing surgery to address a broken bone in his foot, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Out
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers
+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Milwaukee Brewers
65%
TOSS-UP
"Brewers ML -125 (model): Padres bullpen -20% effective with 5 arms compromised vs Milwaukee depth"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
48%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-2.0%
Line Movement
Open
N/A - Early season game, no lines posted
Current
N/A
Movement
No movement - pre-market
No edge - Brewers home + depth advantage offsets Padres talent
FULL ANALYSIS
Padres bullpen gutted with Matsui/Waldron out + 3 DTD while Brewers have 4 DTD arms but deeper overall roster. American Family Field + early April chill projects 7.6 total runs. Model sees slim Brewers home edge at 52% but caps confidence with zero sample.
Kelly Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
67%
San Diego Padres -122
- Padres ELO + pitcher depth edge (Marquez available vs Brewers injuries)
SPREAD PICK
●
65%
San Diego Padres
- Padres superior projected rotation depth with Brewers' Woodruff DTD
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
62%
UNDER 8.0 8.0
- Early MLB games average -0.4 runs vs regular season (cold weather bias)
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Padres ML +3.2 EV: rotation depth crushes Brewers' injury-riddled staff (Woodruff DTD)
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