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Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
Sox
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
Colorado Rockies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +33.0% EV ALIGNED
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 1.5
"Red Sox +1.5 at Coors: 16.3% sharp edge, $275K whale volume, +33% EV — sharp money is fading the Rockies' Coors bump"
EV / $100
+8.0
Win Prob
55%
Edge
-1.2%
Size
1.0u
MONEYLINE Boston Red Sox None
60%
TOTAL over 12.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 16.3% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$275000 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 81 trades Largest: $38875
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: -1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +10.5
Win Prob
34.2%
ML
192 / -192

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Boston Red Sox

Colorado Rockies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 107 / -128 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 111 / -123 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-275) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-133) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 11.5 (-112)
De-Vigged Fair Value -126 / 126 117 / -117 O/U -105 / 105
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Boston Red Sox

R
Romy Gonzalez
(1B) 60-day IL — Gonzalez (shoulder) was removed from Double-A Portland's game Saturday after four innings with soreness in his left hip flexor, Josh Kirshenbaum of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
I
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
(2B) 10-day IL — The Red Sox placed Kiner-Falefa on the 10-day injured list Saturday, retroactive to Friday, with left forearm inflammation, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Trevor Story
(SS) 60-day IL — Story (abdomen) has begun jogging and swinging off a tee, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Patrick Sandoval
(SP) 60-day IL — Sandoval (biceps) went three innings, allowing one earned run on one hit and one walk while striking out four Wednesday for Double-A Portland, reports Christopher Smith of MassLive.com.
60-Day-IL
R
Roman Anthony
(LF) 10-day IL — Anthony (finger) underwent a follow-up MRI on Tuesday that came back clean, but he's not yet cleared to swing a bat, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Garrett Crochet
(SP) 60-day IL — Crochet (shoulder/lat) began throwing a plyometric ball Tuesday as the first step of his throwing program, Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
N
Nick Sogard
(3B) 10-day IL — Sogard (oblique) told reporters Friday that he plans to start swinging a bat Monday, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jovani Moran
(RP) 15-day IL — The Red Sox placed Moran on the 15-day injured list Saturday, retroactive to Friday, with left elbow inflammation, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
15-Day-IL
K
Kutter Crawford
(SP) 60-day IL — Interim manager Chad Tracy said Tuesday that Crawford (elbow) is dealing with moderate tightness in his right forearm, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Triston Casas
(1B) 60-day IL — Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy told reporters Wednesday that Casas (abdomen/knee) is close to being cleared to swing a bat, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Houck
(SP) 60-day IL — Houck (elbow) has been making throws out to 105 feet three days per week, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Hobie Harris
(RP) day-to-day — Harris was optioned to Triple-A Rochester on Saturday, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brendan Rodgers
(2B) out — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.
Out
J
Johan Oviedo
(SP) 60-day IL — Oviedo (elbow) will be reevaluated by Dr. Keith Meister in two weeks to determine his progress, Marcos Grunfeld of ElEmergente.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Colorado Rockies

B
Blas Castano
(RP) 15-day IL — Castano was called up from Triple-A Albuquerque on Thursday.
15-Day-IL
T
Tanner Gordon
(RP) 15-day IL — Gordon (hip) will face hitters Saturday and could begin a rehab assignment shortly thereafter, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Brenton Doyle
(CF) 10-day IL — Doyle (oblique) worked in the batting cage Monday, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jordan Beck
(LF) 10-day IL — Beck (hamstring) stretched and did running drills prior to Tuesday's game against the Cubs, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
M
Mickey Moniak
(LF) 10-day IL — Moniak (ankle) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Albuquerque on Thursday, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Chase Dollander
(SP) 60-day IL — Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer said Friday that Dollander will likely undergo surgery to repair the UCL in his right elbow, Kevin Henry of The Denver Gazette reports.
60-Day-IL
W
Welinton Herrera
(RP) 60-day IL — Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer announced Monday that Herrera (elbow) has been diagnosed with a torn UCL and will miss the remainder of the season, Jack Janes of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
McCade Brown
(SP) 60-day IL — Brown (shoulder) had been scheduled to throw a live bullpen session this weekend, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jose Quintana
(SP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Quintana on the 15-day injured list Monday with a left elbow sprain.
60-Day-IL
R
RJ Petit
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brayan Castillo
(RP) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
P
Pierson Ohl
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kris Bryant
(DH) 60-day IL — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Case Williams
(SP) day-to-day — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Thomas
(CF) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Boston Red Sox @ Colorado Rockies
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-275)
Total Over 11.5
Key Injuries
Romy Gonzalez 60-Day-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 10-Day-IL
Blas Castano 15-Day-IL
Tanner Gordon 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Boston Red Sox @ Colorado Rockies

+8.0 EV
per $100 wagered
Boston Red Sox 65% Sharp Lean
"Red Sox +1.5 at Coors: 16.3% sharp edge, $275K whale volume, +33% EV — sharp money is fading the Rockies' Coors bump"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 56%
Edge -1.2%
Line Movement
Open ML: Home +104 / Away -126 | Total: 12.0 | Spread: 1.5
Current ML: Home +104 / Away -126 | Total: 12.0 | Spread: 1.5
Movement No significant movement detected. Market stable.
Coors Field — high altitude inflates scoring by ~35% Both teams missing key players (Moniak/Doyle for COL, Kiner-Falefa for BOS) No starting pitchers announced — major uncertainty for total projection OMEGA model projects 22.5 total — 10.5 runs above market — extreme divergence
Moneyline at -126 has negative EV. Our win probability (54.6%) is below the breakeven of 55.8%. No value on the moneyline.
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money is hammering Boston on the spread — 16.3% edge with $275K in whale volume (EXTREME tier) all on the away side. The OMEGA model projects a 22.5 total, 10.5 runs above the market line of 12.0, creating a massive over opportunity at Coors Field. However, with no starting pitchers announced and totals being the model's weakest market (48.7% WR), the over is a lean at best. The spread at +1.5 offers the best risk-adjusted value: sharp convergence, +33% EV on Bovada, and Coors Field volatility works in Boston's favor as the better team getting a run and a half.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on spread is 16.3% favoring away (Red Sox). Whale volume is $275K (EXTREME tier) on away side with 69% confidence. Prediction markets (53.5% away) align with sharp books. Strong convergence of sharp signals on Boston.
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Boston Red Sox 1.5
+8.0 EV 65% 1.0u
MONEYLINE Boston Red Sox None
-2.1 EV 60%
TOTAL over 12.0
+15.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
Boston Red Sox -126
  • Sharp money and whales favor Boston, but -126 odds require 55.8% win rate
  • Our posterior is 54.6% — below breakeven
  • No positive EV
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Boston Red Sox 1.5
  • Sharp money divergence: 16.3% edge on Red Sox spread with strong signal, +33% EV vs fair value on Bovada
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 12.0
  • OMEGA model projects 22.5 total — 10.5 runs above market
  • Coors Field inflates scoring by ~35%
  • Bayesian posterior shows 65.1% over probability vs 50% market
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Coors Field over 22.5: altitude adds 1.8 expected runs, model without pitchers is a coin flip — take the over at 62% confidence, 0.5u.
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