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MLB
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers
Houston Astros
Astros
Houston Astros
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +32.0% EV
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
"Over 8.5 +24.5 EV (65% posterior vs 50% market) as omega/MC totals 19-22.5 dwarf line; Dodgers run line value on sharp RLM"
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
65%
Edge
+14.7%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Los Angeles Dodgers None
65%
TOTAL over 8.5
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 18.0% divergence on spread with strong signal. RLM detected on spread.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$538791 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (86% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 94 trades Kalshi: 1468 trades Largest: $16086
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +207.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
30.8%
ML
225 / -225

Player Props Engine

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Los Angeles Dodgers

Houston Astros

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 172 / -212 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 164 / -183 -
Value Line - 170 / -220 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-210) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (101) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (102)
De-Vigged Fair Value 107 / -107 174 / -174 O/U 109 / -109
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Los Angeles Dodgers

M
Mookie Betts
(SS) 10-day IL — Betts (oblique) is focusing on increasing his swing speed and is getting closer to kicking off a minor-league rehab assignment, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
B
Blake Snell
(SP) 15-day IL — Snell (shoulder) completed four innings in a rehab outing with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Sunday, allowing two earned runs on two hits and one walk while striking out four batters.
15-Day-IL
B
Brusdar Graterol
(RP) 15-day IL — Graterol (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Oklahoma City on Saturday, Triple-A Oklahoma City broadcaster Alex Freedman reports.
15-Day-IL
E
Edwin Diaz
(RP) 15-day IL — Diaz said Monday that he's feeling "really good" following right elbow surgery and expressed confidence that he will be back to full strength in the second half of the season, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.
15-Day-IL
L
Landon Knack
(SP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers placed Knack on the 15-day injured list Monday due to an intercostal strain, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tommy Edman
(2B) 10-day IL — Edman (ankle) has been facing live pitching but is still doing only straight-line running, per MLB.com.
10-Day-IL
B
Brock Stewart
(RP) 15-day IL — Stewart (shoulder) had his rehab assignment transferred from Single-A Ontario to Triple-A Oklahoma City, per MLB.com.
15-Day-IL
B
Ben Casparius
(RP) 15-day IL — Casparius said Saturday at DodgerFest, the team's fan event, that he prepared himself as a starting pitcher this offseason, Steve Webb of DodgersBeat.com reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Gavin Stone
(SP) 60-day IL — Stone (shoulder) has resumed throwing, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
J
Jake Cousins
(RP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers transferred Cousins (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Enrique Hernandez
(1B) 60-day IL — Hernandez (elbow) took on-field batting practice at Dodger Stadium on Saturday, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Evan Phillips
(RP) 60-day IL — Phillips (elbow) threw a bullpen session to a squatting catcher March 17, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
B
Bobby Miller
(SP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers placed Miller (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL

Houston Astros

J
Josh Hader
(RP) 60-day IL — Hader (biceps) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Sugar Land on Tuesday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tatsuya Imai
(SP) 15-day IL — Imai (arm) will make his next rehab appearance Tuesday or Wednesday with Triple-A Sugar Land, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jeremy Pena
(SS) 10-day IL — Pena (hamstring) began taking at-bats in live batting practice Tuesday, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
H
Hunter Brown
(SP) 15-day IL — Brown (shoulder) began a throwing program Tuesday, playing catching from 75 feet, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
N
Nate Pearson
(RP) 15-day IL — Pearson (elbow) permitted one run on one hit and four walks over two innings in his first rehab start with Triple-A Sugar Land on Thursday.
15-Day-IL
T
Taylor Trammell
(CF) 10-day IL — Manager Joe Espada stated after Monday's game against the Guardians that Trammell (groin) will "be out for a little bit," Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Joey Loperfido
(LF) 10-day IL — Astros manager Joe Espada said that Loperfido (quadriceps) will do some baseball activities Monday, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
N
Nick Allen
(SS) 10-day IL — Allen was scratched from Saturday's lineup due to back spasms, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Cristian Javier
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Javier (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
Z
Zach Dezenzo
(LF) 10-day IL — Dezenzo (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Corpus Christi on Friday.
10-Day-IL
J
Jake Meyers
(CF) 10-day IL — Meyers was removed from Wednesday's game versus the Rockies in the second inning due to lower-back tightness, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Ronel Blanco
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Blanco (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday.
60-Day-IL
H
Hayden Wesneski
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Wesneski (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Monday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Walter
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros placed Walter (elbow) on the 60-day injured list.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-210)
Total Over 9.0
Key Injuries
Mookie Betts 10-Day-IL
Blake Snell 15-Day-IL
Josh Hader 60-Day-IL
Tatsuya Imai 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Los Angeles Dodgers 64% Sharp Lean
"Over 8.5 +24.5 EV (65% posterior vs 50% market) as omega/MC totals 19-22.5 dwarf line; Dodgers run line value on sharp RLM"
65% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 65%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +14.7%
Line Movement
Current ML: Astros +169 / Dodgers -207 | Run Line: Dodgers -1.5 (implied heavy juice) | Total: 8.5
Movement No significant line movement detected.
Slight +1.9pp calibrated edge on Dodgers ML but -207 juice yields negative EV (-4.1 per $100); breakeven 67.4% exceeds our 64.7% posterior by >5pp gap → PASS ML per hard rules.
FULL ANALYSIS
Market juices Dodgers -207 despite omega even ML (-225) and MC 47.9% home win at 0 spread; sharp RLM on Dodgers run line cover with +32% EV available. Total 8.5 crushed by omega 22.5/MC 19.3 (+15.2pp over edge) but totals WR 48.7% caps sizing. Whales $539k extreme home (86% conf) contradicts Tier 1 away posterior, reduces ML conf; Mookie out offsets Astros IL cluster.
SHARP MONEY
Strong RLM + 18% sharp edge on spread away (Dodgers cover); ML sharp weak home. +EV spread away +32% at Bovada +155 confirms syndicate action.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
+3.2 EV 64% 1u
MONEYLINE Los Angeles Dodgers None
-4.1 EV 65%
TOTAL over 8.5
+24.5 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 65%
Los Angeles Dodgers -207
  • Posterior 64.7% (anchored to Bayesian fusion) vs devig market 62.8%; Tier 1 model agreement HIGH
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
  • Bayesian posterior anchors ~65% Dodgers ML equivalent to spread cover edge vs fair value 51.8% away; sharp RLM + +32% EV at +155 confirms
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 62%
OVER 8.5
  • Over posterior 65.2% (+15.2pp edge) vs market; omega total 22.5/MC 19.3 crush low 8.5 line
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Dodgers ML +1.5pp Bayesian edge vs Kalshi (65% posterior, +2.4 EV); MC under 22.5 75.6% (+28 EV)
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