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MLB
Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Angels
Angels
New York Yankees
Yankees
New York Yankees
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +41.8% EV
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 1.5
"Angels +149 ML (49% model vs 40% breakeven) + +1.5 value off omega 0.0 spread, NYY injuries -11%"
EV / $100
+8.5
Win Prob
49%
Edge
-1.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Los Angeles Angels None
62%
TOTAL over 9.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.6% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$61870 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (90% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 30 trades Kalshi: 123 trades Largest: $6483
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +181.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
34.4%
ML
191 / -191

Player Props Engine

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Los Angeles Angels

New York Yankees

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -180 / 148 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -172 / 154 -
Value Line - -186 / 148 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (220) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (118) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (-108)
De-Vigged Fair Value 126 / -126 -164 / 164 O/U -101 / 101
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Los Angeles Angels

K
Kirby Yates
(RP) 15-day IL — Angels manager Kurt Suzuki said Friday that Yates (knee) is expected to pitch for High-A Rancho Cucamonga soon, per MLB.com.
15-Day-IL
G
Grayson Rodriguez
(SP) 15-day IL — Rodriguez (shoulder) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session Saturday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Robert Stephenson
(RP) 60-day IL — The Angels announced that Stephenson underwent ligament and flexor repair surgery on his right elbow Wednesday and is likely to miss the remainder of the season, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Alek Manoah
(SP) 15-day IL — Manoah (finger) has been throwing bullpen sessions with all of his pitches at the Angels' spring complex in Arizona, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Ryan Johnson
(SP) 15-day IL — The Angels placed Johnson on the 15-day injured list Monday with a viral infection.
15-Day-IL
B
Ben Joyce
(RP) 15-day IL — Joyce (shoulder) isn't yet tossing bullpens at full intensity, but he's doing well in his throwing program, per MLB.com.
15-Day-IL
A
Anthony Rendon
(3B) 60-day IL — The Angels placed Rendon (hip) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL

New York Yankees

C
Carlos Rodon
(SP) 15-day IL — Rodon (elbow/hamstring) is scheduled to throw a live bullpen session in the early portion of the coming week, per MLB.com.
15-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Anthony Volpe
(SS) 10-day IL — Volpe (shoulder) is slated to begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Somerset on Tuesday, Erik Boland of Newsday reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Gerrit Cole
(SP) 15-day IL — Cole (elbow) will face hitters at High-A Hudson Valley on Sunday, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Rafael Montero
(RP) out — Montero continues to have visa issues and hasn't yet arrived at Yankees camp, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
Out
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor signed a minor-league contract with the Angels on Monday.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Los Angeles Angels @ New York Yankees
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (220)
Total Over 9.0
Key Injuries
Kirby Yates 15-Day-IL
Grayson Rodriguez 15-Day-IL
Carlos Rodon 15-Day-IL
Clarke Schmidt 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Los Angeles Angels @ New York Yankees

+8.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Los Angeles Angels 64% Sharp Lean
"Angels +149 ML (49% model vs 40% breakeven) + +1.5 value off omega 0.0 spread, NYY injuries -11%"
49% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 49%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -1.0%
Line Movement
Current NYY -1.5 -181 / LAA +1.5 ~+151 | Total 9.0 | ML NYY -181 / LAA +149
Movement No significant line movement detected
+17 EV on Angels ML at +149 (breakeven 40.2%, our 49% exceeds by 8.8%)
Model: 51.8% win rate | n=423 — N=423 MLB; reduce higher tiers per tier data (Strong 49.4%)
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega even spread clashes with NYY -1.5 -181 juice (64% implied cover vs MC 45% home cover). Bayesian -7.5% edge on away ML, injuries ding NYY harder (-11% vs -7%). MC pick'em at 47.1% Angels win, whales home contradict (-3 conf). Totals model 24+ but historical 48.7% WR caps at lean.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Los Angeles Angels 1.5
+8.5 EV 64% 1u
MONEYLINE Los Angeles Angels None
+17.0 EV 62% 0.5u
TOTAL over 9.0
+12.4 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 62%
Los Angeles Angels 149
  • Bayesian posterior 51% NYY win vs 64.4% implied, -7.5% edge favoring away ML
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Los Angeles Angels 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market NYY -1.5 -181 (implied 64% cover), MC away cover 47.1%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 9.0
  • Omega total 24.0 and MC projected 24.9 vs market 9.0, over 51% at inflated line
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Yankees +168 ML: +14.7% Bayesian edge (52% vs 37%) + whale support = +39 EV despite injuries.
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