La Liga
Osasuna
Osasuna
Athletic Club
Club
Whale Activity Detected
$4257 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong away consensus (100% of whale volume).
Whales: away
Polymarket: 8 trades
Largest: $532
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAOsasuna
Athletic Club
Model Lines
MODELSpread
-1.7
Moneyline
ATH 128
/
OSA -128
Win Probability
44%
-
56%
Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Osasuna @ Athletic Club
+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Athletic Club
59%
Lean
Raw
"Athletic -0.5: San Mames home edge +1.5% model prob vs market, EV +4.2%"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
55%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+5.0%
Line Movement
Current
ATH -0.5 (-115/-120), Total 2.5, ML ATH -110 / OSA +340
Movement
No significant line movement detected
Modest edge on home cover after vig; breakeven 53.5% exceeded slightly
FULL ANALYSIS
Athletic Club's San Mames edge projects 55% cover prob vs market 53.5% on -0.5 spread, with stable lines and no injuries. Minor $4k whale on Osasuna (low signal) offset by home venue factor in mist-cooled Bilbao. Under 2.5 leans value given LaLiga avg 2.4 goals and weather suppression.
SHARP MONEY
Minor whale volume ($4,257 from 1 wallet, 100% on Osasuna) but low tier signal
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
56%
Athletic Club -110
- Mild favorite pricing undervalues Athletic's home win rate vs mid-table Osasuna
SPREAD PICK
○
59%
Athletic Club -0.5
- San Mames home advantage in LaLiga where Athletic covers 55% as -0.5 or shorter favorites
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
54%
UNDER 2.5
- Mist at 54F low wind favors under in LaLiga avg 2.4 goals/game
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Athletic Club ML -110: 54% prob vs 52.4% implied (+3.1 EV), home edge trumps minor away whale
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