WNBA
Minnesota Lynx
Lynx
New York Liberty
Liberty
Whale Activity Detected
$15132 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong home consensus (74% of whale volume).
Whales: home
Polymarket: 15 trades
Kalshi: 1 trades
Largest: $1752
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAMinnesota Lynx
New York Liberty
OMEGA Model Lines
MODELSpread
-7.4
Moneyline
NEW 288
/
MIN -288
Win Probability
26%
-
74%
OMEGA model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Minnesota Lynx @ New York Liberty
+5.5 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Liberty
55%
Lean
"Liberty -2.5 has a small edge from Collier's absence, but poor data quality limits confidence to a lean"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
55%
Book Implied
52%
Edge
+2.6%
Line Movement
Current
Liberty -2.5 (-110), Total 173.5
Movement
No significant movement detected
Lynx missing star Napheesa Collier (out) - critical offensive loss
Liberty missing Satou Sabally (out) - moderate loss
Net injury impact favors Liberty by ~13.8%
Slight edge on Liberty spread due to injury advantage, but data quality is poor and confidence is capped.
FULL ANALYSIS
Lynx are severely shorthanded without Napheesa Collier, while Liberty only miss Satou Sabally. The market has adjusted but not fully captured the net 13.8% injury advantage for New York. Whale money is moderately on Liberty, but data quality is poor (38%) and WNBA is an unvalidated cell. The spread offers a slight edge at -2.5, but confidence is low. Totals lean under due to missing scorers, but edge is marginal. Player props on Stewart and Miles are reasonable projections given increased usage.
SHARP MONEY
Whale signal shows moderate volume ($15k) on Liberty side, but no sharp vs public data available to confirm.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
55%
New York Liberty -142
- Injury advantage favors Liberty, but -142 requires 58.7% breakeven; our confidence (55%) is below that threshold
SPREAD PICK
○
55%
New York Liberty -2.5
- Lynx lose Collier (20.7% team impact) while Liberty only lose Sabally (6.9%) - net advantage not fully priced into 2.5-point spread
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
55%
UNDER 173.5
- Both teams missing key scorers (Collier, Sabally) reduces offensive output; total may be slightly inflated
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Lynx +2.5 and ML -125 vs Sabally-less Liberty — the market underweights NY's secondary scoring loss while overpricing Collier's absence relative to team depth. +5.8 EV on the spread, +5.4 on ML.
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