Home › MLS › FC Cincinnati @ Red Bull New York
MLS
FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati
Cincinnati
Red Bull New York
York
Red Bull New York
Full Game Analysis
MLS
Ω OMEGA PICK
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 0.5
"Under 2.5 (+8.4 EV): omega 13.0 total vs market 2.5 on Poisson 6.4-6.4 explosion mismatch"
EV / $100
+3.1
Win Prob
50%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Red Bull New York None
55%
TOTAL under 2.5
70%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
13.0
Edge: +10.5
Win Prob
28.4%
ML
252 / -252

Player Props Engine

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FC Cincinnati

Red Bull New York

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
RED -100 / FC -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
FC Cincinnati @ Red Bull New York
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

FC Cincinnati @ Red Bull New York

+3.1 EV
per $100 wagered
FC Cincinnati 64% Sharp Lean
"Under 2.5 (+8.4 EV): omega 13.0 total vs market 2.5 on Poisson 6.4-6.4 explosion mismatch"
50% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 50%
Book Implied 50%
Edge 0.0%
Line Movement
Current RBNY -0.5 (-110) / CIN +0.5 (-125); Total 2.5; ML RBNY -105 / CIN +235
Movement No movement data
No ML edge; omega_model sees 50/50 vs market's 51% RBNY. Spread has minor value on CIN +0.5 (omega 0.0 spread = 0.5pt edge). Total massively overpriced under (13.0 proj vs 2.5 line).
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega Poisson projects 6.4-6.4 goals (total 13.0) vs market 2.5—massive under value as MLS unders hit 54% but this gap screams misprice. Spread edge on CIN +0.5 with omega even line (0.0) vs RBNY -0.5; even records/teams. N=0 MLS forces conservative sizing despite tier calibration favoring ML profitability.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD FC Cincinnati 0.5
+3.1 EV 64% 1u
MONEYLINE Red Bull New York None
+1.2 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL under 2.5
+8.4 EV 70% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 66%
FC Cincinnati 230
  • Omega ML implies FC Cincy 50%+ win prob vs market 30% implied; profitable ML tier historically
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
FC Cincinnati 0.5
  • Omega spread at 0.0 vs market RBNY -0.5 creates 0.5pt edge on road dog
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 2.5
  • Omega total 13.0 vs market 2.5 shows massive 10.5pt overreaction/underpricing
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
FC Cincy ML +230 (+5.8 EV): Omega spread 0.0 vs market -0.5, Poisson even 6.4-6.4 goals
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