Home › MLB › St. Louis Cardinals @ Detroit Tigers
MLB
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
Detroit Tigers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers -1.5
"DET spread +49.6% EV vs Pinnacle fair (15.7% sharp div) w/ Skubal 0.69 ERA dominance"
EV / $100
+4.8
Win Prob
58%
Edge
+8.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Detroit Tigers None
58%
TOTAL under 7.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

St. Louis Cardinals

Detroit Tigers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action - -180 / 148 ↑ -
Sharp Action -3.0 (245) - -
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

St. Louis Cardinals

M
Masyn Winn
(SS) day-to-day — Winn is starting at shortstop and batting cleanup in Thursday's opener versus the Rays.
Day-To-Day
M
Matt Pushard
(RP) 15-day IL — Pushard (knee) will be shut down for 4-to-5 days before resuming a throwing program, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hunter Dobbins
(SP) 15-day IL — Dobbins (knee) will begin a rehab assignment Tuesday at Triple-A Memphis, Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
15-Day-IL
I
Ixan Henderson
(SP) day-to-day — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.
Day-To-Day
L
Lars Nootbaar
(LF) 60-day IL — Cardinals president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom said Monday that Nootbaar (heels) will be evaluated this week for potential placement on the 60-day injured list, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
60-Day-IL
V
Victor Santos
(RP) day-to-day — Santos (elbow) has compiled a 3.97 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 26:7 K:BB across 34 innings over his first nine outings (seven starts) in the Dominican Winter League.
Day-To-Day
S
Sem Robberse
(SP) day-to-day — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zack Thompson
(RP) day-to-day — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day

Detroit Tigers

S
Scott Effross
(RP) day-to-day — Effross (oblique) will throw a bullpen session Friday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Tyler Owens
(SP) day-to-day — Owens (hip) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Lakeland on Saturday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Troy Watson
(SP) day-to-day — Watson is scheduled to begin a throwing program Monday as he works his way back from arthroscopic right elbow surgery, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Trey Sweeney
(SS) 10-day IL — The Tigers placed Sweeney (shoulder) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
B
Bailey Horn
(RP) 15-day IL — The Tigers placed Horn (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
S
Sawyer Gipson-Long
(RP) 15-day IL — The Tigers placed Gipson-Long (oblique) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
B
Beau Brieske
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Brieske (groin) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jackson Jobe
(SP) 60-day IL — Jobe (elbow) is scheduled to play catch out to 120 feet three times this week, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Troy Melton
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers announced Friday that Melton (elbow) has started his throwing program, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Dugan Darnell
(RP) day-to-day — The Tigers announced Sunday that Darnell (hip) has been playing catch five times a week and is also taking part in a running progression, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Josue Briceno
(C) out — Briceno said Friday that he expects to be sidelined a few months after having surgery Wednesday to repair a tendon in his right wrist, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Out
R
Reese Olson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday following a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
St. Louis Cardinals @ Detroit Tigers
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (245)
Key Injuries
Masyn Winn Day-To-Day
Matt Pushard 15-Day-IL
Scott Effross Day-To-Day
Tyler Owens Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

St. Louis Cardinals @ Detroit Tigers

+4.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Detroit Tigers 65% Sharp Lean
"DET spread +49.6% EV vs Pinnacle fair (15.7% sharp div) w/ Skubal 0.69 ERA dominance"
58% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 58%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +8.0%
Line Movement
Current DET -175 ML / Total 7.5
Movement No movement data
ML negative EV due to juice exceeding our prob; avoid heavy favorite ML per framework (-175 breakeven 63.6%, our 58% < threshold by 5.6%)
Model: 54.7% win rate | n=139 — N=139 MLB; reduce lean/strong conf due to gaps; boost only high-edge tier signals
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money hammering DET spread (+15.7% edge, 49% EV at Bovada) while retail juices ML to -175; Skubal 0.69 ERA vs injured Cards staff gives pitching edge projecting under 7.5. Model sees 58% DET win prob but passes ML juice trap. Spread offers best CLV projection.
SHARP MONEY
15.7% sharp edge on spread favoring home (Pinnacle fair 43.4% vs retail implied 29%); +49.6% EV on DET spread at Bovada confirms syndicate divergence
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Detroit Tigers -1.5
+4.8 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Detroit Tigers None
-2.1 EV 58%
TOTAL under 7.5
+1.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 68%
St. Louis Cardinals -205
  • Combined Poisson/ELO win prob 67.2% vs implied 67.2% but tier calibration shows ML profitable at 64% confidence
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
St. Louis Cardinals 0.0
  • Omega ELO projects Cardinals -0.5 spread edge (1479 rating vs Tigers 1467)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 24.0 24.0
  • Omega total 24.0 but MLB totals consistently losing across tiers (36% hit rate); fade model high projection
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Cardinals ML -205 (omega_model): 67% prob + ELO edge vs injured Tigers pen, 2.1 EV despite vig
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700