Home › NHL › Minnesota Wild @ Philadelphia Flyers
NHL
Minnesota Wild
Minnesota Wild
Wild
Philadelphia Flyers
Flyers
Philadelphia Flyers
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω DDN SI PICK +8.4% EV
50% Lean
50% Lean
MONEYLINE
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild None
EV / $100
-2.4
Win Prob
52%
Edge
+8.5%
SPREAD Minnesota Wild -1.5
55%
TOTAL under 5.5
58%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors under side. 4.7% divergence on total with strong signal. RLM detected on total.
Sharp: under Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$74837 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 7 trades Kalshi: 87 trades Largest: $29700

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Minnesota Wild

Philadelphia Flyers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 155 / -180 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 157 / -175 -
Value Line - 145 / -175 -
Sharp Action Best Line 1.5 (-165) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-161) ↓ - -
Value Line 1.5 (-182) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 6.0 (-103)
Market Consensus - - Over 6.0 (103)
Value Line - - Over 5.5 (-134)
De-Vigged Fair Value -152 / 152 167 / -167 O/U 109 / -109
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Minnesota Wild

J
Jared Spurgeon
(D) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve
B
Brock Faber
(D) Injured Reserve — Faber (skull) has cleared his return to play protocol and could resume skating within a few days, per Michael Russo of The Athletic.
Injured Reserve
F
Filip Gustavsson
(G) Injured Reserve — Head coach John Hynes said Sunday that Gustavsson (hip) is slated to miss at least another month, Dylan Loucks of The Hockey News reports.
Injured Reserve
M
Marcus Foligno
(LW) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve
N
Nick Foligno
(LW) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve

Philadelphia Flyers

R
Rasmus Ristolainen
(D) Injured Reserve — Ristolainen (hand) was placed on injured reserve, retroactive to Oct. 24, on Tuesday.
Injured Reserve
N
Nikita Grebenkin
(RW) Injured Reserve — Grebenkin (back) underwent successful surgery and is expected to miss at least four months.
Injured Reserve
Game Preview
Minnesota Wild @ Philadelphia Flyers
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread 1.5 (-165)
Total Over 6.0
Key Injuries
Jared Spurgeon Injured Reserve
Brock Faber Injured Reserve
Rasmus Ristolainen Injured Reserve
Nikita Grebenkin Injured Reserve
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Moneyline: Minnesota Wild (-175) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-01T19:42:48.529235 UTC

Market Consensus fair 62.8% Wild but -175 retail requires 63.6% breakeven — edge is with Minnesota's direction yet the price is juiced past fair value

Total: under 5.5 (+108) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-03T02:31:36.809881 UTC

Market Consensus de-vig fair 52.0% under vs retail +108 (43.5% implied) = +8.2% EV, backed by 4.4% sharp divergence and RLM to the under

Spread: Minnesota Wild -1.5 (+145) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-03T02:31:36.767377 UTC

Puckline +145 pays Wild ML premium that sharp books (away 1.1% spread edge) partially support, but posterior says only 38.2% cover vs 40.8% implied

Player Prop: over (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-02T07:33:31.907856 UTC

Kaprizov leads Wild scorers (15 points, 25 shots shown in leaders table); with Nick and Marcus Foligno on IR, top-6 deployment concentrates, boosting his ice time and shooting volume against a Flyers defense missing Ristolainen.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Minnesota Wild @ Philadelphia Flyers

+-2.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Minnesota Wild 50% Lean
DDN SI sees no actionable edge on this game. Under 5.5 at +108 vs 52% Pinnacle fair = +8.2% EV with RLM confirmed — only 0.5u while NHL calibration is paused, Wild ML at -175 is a (need 63.6%, fair says 62.8%).
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 44%
Edge +8.5%
Line Movement
Current ML PHI 145 / MIN -175 | Spread 1.5 (PHI +1.5 -175) | Total 5.5 (under +108)
Movement No significant line movement detected
Away injury drag worse than home: Wild down Spurgeon, Faber, Gustavsson, Foligno x2 (-25.0% lambda) vs Flyers Ristolainen/Grebenkin (-12.6%)
Under at +108 vs Market Consensus de-vig 52.0% fair = +8.2% per $100. This is the only quantitative +EV side among the binding quotes: spread fair value (PHI 60.2%) vs -175 retail price is -EV, and Wild ML -175 needs 63.6% vs 62.8% fair = -EV. The +8.2% leads with a strong RLM under signal, but NHL is in a PAUSED calibration state (-13.9% ROI, 25% CLV) so sizing stays minimal despite positive math.
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp side is Minnesota: Pinnacle de-vig puts the Wild at 62.8% vs retail's 59.2% while the retail puckline prices Philly +1.5 at 63.6% — the only true price gap is the total, where fair under value is 52.0% and the book pays +108 for +8.2% EV with strong RLM confirming. Wild are missing Gustavsson, Faber, Spurgeon and both Folignos (-25% lambda) yet the market hasn't already priced the injuries into the ML price, which caps to a PASS. Whale money sits home at 50% conviction — split, contradicting the sharps, so it's discounted to zero and this stays a 0.5u under sleeper in a PAUSED NHL calibration window.
SHARP MONEY
Pinnacle fair value favors Wild 62.8% vs retail 59.2% ML and away spread edge 1.1%; total shows the strongest divergence: 4.4% sharp edge to under with RLM detected. Whale money ($74,837, STRONG tier) sits HOME at only 50% conviction — split money contradicts sharp books, so default to the sharp side per protocol.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Minnesota Wild None
-2.4 EV 50%
SPREAD Minnesota Wild -1.5
-6.4 EV 55%
TOTAL under 5.5
+8.2 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
Minnesota Wild -175
  • Market Consensus fair 62.8% Wild but -175 retail requires 63.6% breakeven — edge is with Minnesota's direction yet the price is juiced past fair value
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Minnesota Wild -1.5
  • Puckline +145 pays Wild ML premium that sharp books (away 1.1% spread edge) partially support, but posterior says only 38.2% cover vs 40.8% implied
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 5.5
  • Market Consensus de-vig fair 52.0% under vs retail +108 (43.5% implied) = +8.2% EV, backed by 4.4% sharp divergence and RLM to the under
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Wild injury-cascade model edge (+5.3pp posterior over market, Gustavsson/Faber/Spurgeon all on IR) but no book price posted — model line -587/-2.0/5.0, only the Wild spread clears the betting bar
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