UEFA Champions League
Arsenal
Arsenal
Atlético Madrid
Madrid
Player Props Engine
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Atlético Madrid
Betting Odds Comparison
| Source | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Consensus | - | 222 / 139 ↑ | - |
| Market Consensus | 0.25 (-114) | - | - |
| Market Consensus | - | - | Over 2.25 (-106) |
| De-Vigged Fair Value | -110 / 110 | 123 / -123 | O/U -101 / 101 |
Line Movement
Open
Current
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Arsenal @ Atlético Madrid
+8.3 EV
per $100 wagered
Arsenal
66%
Sharp Lean
"Arsenal ML -135: 68.2% posterior vs 57.4% vigged implied (+18.7 EV) aligns Kalshi, fade Pinnacle fair value"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
68%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+18.2%
Line Movement
Current
Arsenal -0.5 (-170) / Atlético Madrid +0.5 (+120) | ML: Arsenal -135 / Atlético Madrid +215 | Total 2.5 (-110)
Movement
No significant line movement detected
+EV on Arsenal ML vs vigged implied; neutral calibrated edge vs devigged prior
FULL ANALYSIS
Arsenal's 68.2% posterior edges -135 ML vigged implied 57.4% (+18.7 EV/$100) with Kalshi 69.5% confirmation vs Pinnacle 55.1% fair. Spread -0.5 at -170 offers thinner 8.3 EV but same win prob anchor. Under 2.5 leans on UCL low-scoring norm (2.3 gpg) despite neutral +EV data.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
68%
Arsenal -135
- Bayesian posterior 68.2% exceeds vigged implied 57.4% by 10.8pp
SPREAD PICK
●
66%
Arsenal -0.5
- Poisson-fused posterior 68.2% for Arsenal win exceeds -170 breakeven 63% by 5.2pp
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
55%
UNDER 2.5
- Soccer UCL avg 2.3 goals/game; +EV analysis under 49.8% neutral but totals historically losing
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Atlético ML +180: Pinnacle fair 48% vs book 36% (+34 EV); retail juiced wrong on UCL dog
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