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MLB
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
Guardians
Athletics
Athletics
Athletics
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +41.7% EV
62% Lean
62% Lean
SPREAD
Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 1.5
"Guardians +113 overlooked vs omega -163 (46% MC win), over 10 +15.2pp edge on 22.5 model total"
EV / $100
+8.2
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-4.1%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Cleveland Guardians None
46%
TOTAL over 10.0
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 13.1% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$731586 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (79% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 252 trades Kalshi: 72 trades Largest: $34654
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +136.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +12.5
Win Prob
38.0%
ML
163 / -163

Player Props Engine

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Cleveland Guardians

Athletics

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -140 / 117 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -131 / 118 -
Value Line - -127 / 102 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (265) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (147) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 10.0 (-114)
De-Vigged Fair Value 158 / -158 -125 / 125 O/U -107 / 107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Cleveland Guardians

G
Gabriel Arias
(SS) 10-day IL — no
10-Day-IL
C
Carlos Hernandez
(RP) day-to-day — Hernandez is making progress but is still in the midst of a rehab program after suffering fractures to his left arm and right leg during a Jan. 11 car accident in Venezuela, SI.com reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Cooper Ingle
(C) day-to-day — Triple-A Columbus placed Ingle on the 7-day injured list April 24 with right hip inflammation.
Day-To-Day
S
Shawn Armstrong
(RP) 15-day IL — Armstrong struck out one over a scoreless inning to pick up a hold in Friday's 4-1 win over the Cubs.
15-Day-IL
A
Andrew Walters
(RP) 15-day IL — Walters (lat) struck out the side in the eighth inning Friday for Triple-A Columbus.
15-Day-IL

Athletics

J
Jeffrey Springs
(SP) day-to-day — Springs (hip) is expected to be available for his next scheduled start, Jason Burke of SI.com reports.
Day-To-Day
D
Denzel Clarke
(CF) 10-day IL — Clarke (foot) is expected to shed his walking boot and start a running progression this week, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
M
Max Muncy
(3B) 10-day IL — The Athletics placed Muncy on the 10-day injured list Tuesday due to a fractured fifth metacarpal in his left hand.
10-Day-IL
J
JJ Goss
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
G
Gunnar Hoglund
(SP) 60-day IL — Hoglund (knee/back) has begun a throwing progression, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (265)
Total Over 10.0
Key Injuries
Gabriel Arias 10-Day-IL
Carlos Hernandez Day-To-Day
Jeffrey Springs Day-To-Day
Denzel Clarke 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics

+8.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Cleveland Guardians 62% Lean
"Guardians +113 overlooked vs omega -163 (46% MC win), over 10 +15.2pp edge on 22.5 model total"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -4.1%
Line Movement
Current Run Line: Athletics -1.5 -136 / Guardians +1.5 +114 | ML: Athletics -136 / Guardians +113 | Total: 10.0
Movement No significant line movement detected
Slight +3.6pp edge on Guardians ML vs devigged market (42.4% imp); total over +15.2pp massive
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega/MC project pick'em 10-10+ scores (total edge +12.5 pts over market 10) with Guardians ML undervalued (+113 vs omega -163, Bayesian +3.6pp). Whales/extreme $731k + sharp 13.1% home spread conflict low-agreement models (VERY_LOW). Equal injuries, no pitchers/flags degrade; cap at leans.
SHARP MONEY
13.1% sharp edge on home spread + extreme whale volume $731k (87 wallets, 80% conf home)
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Cleveland Guardians 1.5
+8.2 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Cleveland Guardians None
+3.6 EV 46%
TOTAL over 10.0
+15.2 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 46%
Cleveland Guardians 113
  • Bayesian posterior 45.9% vs market prior 42.4% (+3.6pp); Omega ML Guardians -163 vs market +113
SPREAD PICK
○ 62%
Cleveland Guardians 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market Athletics -1.5 shows +EV on Guardians +1.5 cover (MC away covers 46.8% at pick'em)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 62%
OVER 10.0
  • Posterior over 65.2% vs market 50% (+15.2pp); Omega/MC totals 19.8-22.5 vs 10.0
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Athletics home: extreme $470k whales (84%) + 13% sharp spread edge & +47.8% EV
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