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San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
Padres
Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbac
Arizona Diamondbacks
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +105.7% EV EARLY VALUE
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 2.2
"Padres +102 ML +17.2 EV (58% model vs 49.5% breakeven), omega 2.2pt spread/8pt total edges on MC 21.4 proj"
EV / $100
+12.4
Win Prob
58%
Edge
+8.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE San Diego Padres None
67%
TOTAL over 16.0
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 29.9% divergence on spread with strong signal. RLM detected on spread.
Sharp: home Boost: +3
Whale Activity Detected
$902567 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 369 trades Kalshi: 166 trades Largest: $31339
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +2.2
Total
24.0
Edge: +8.0
Win Prob
24.4%
ML
310 / -310

Player Props Engine

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San Diego Padres

Arizona Diamondbacks

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -112 / -108 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 108 / -119 -
Value Line - 104 / -130 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (270) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-132) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 15.5 (-107)
De-Vigged Fair Value -125 / 125 114 / -114 O/U -100 / -100
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

San Diego Padres

G
Griffin Canning
(SP) 15-day IL — Canning (Achilles) yielded two earned runs on three hits and two walks across 1.2 innings in his rehab start Wednesday with Triple-A El Paso. He didn't record a strikeout.
15-Day-IL
B
Bryan Hoeing
(RP) 60-day IL — The Padres placed Hoeing (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
N
Nick Pivetta
(SP) 15-day IL — Padres manager Craig Stammen told reporters Wednesday that Pivetta was diagnosed with a right flexor strain, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joe Musgrove
(SP) 15-day IL — Musgrove (elbow) remains limited to playing catch during his throwing program and hasn't yet been cleared for bullpen sessions, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jeremiah Estrada
(RP) 15-day IL — Estrada (elbow) resumed playing light catch earlier this week, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yuki Matsui
(RP) 15-day IL — Matsui (groin) has turned in two scoreless rehab appearances at Triple-A El Paso, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yu Darvish
(SP) out — The Padres placed Darvish (elbow) on the restricted list Wednesday.
Out
W
Will Wagner
(3B) 10-day IL — The Padres placed Wagner (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
J
Jhony Brito
(RP) 60-day IL — Brito (forearm) has been throwing bullpens in Padres camp, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Hunt
(C) day-to-day — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day

Arizona Diamondbacks

G
Geraldo Perdomo
(SS) day-to-day — Perdomo was removed from Saturday's game against the Padres due to a left ankle sprain.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zac Gallen
(SP) day-to-day — Gallen was removed from Saturday's start against the Padres due to a right shoulder contusion, Jody Jackson of Bally Sports Arizona reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Tyler Locklear
(1B) 10-day IL — Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said Thursday that Locklear (elbow) is taking live at-bats and "trending in a positive direction," Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Gabriel Moreno
(C) 10-day IL — Moreno (oblique) is on track to be activated from the 10-day injured list Tuesday for the start of the Diamondbacks' road trip, John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Corbin Burnes
(SP) 60-day IL — Burnes (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Jose M. Romero of the Arizona Republic reports.
60-Day-IL
A
A.J. Puk
(RP) 60-day IL — Puk (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday and provided an update following the activity, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Pavin Smith
(1B) 60-day IL — Smith underwent surgery to remove bone chips from his left elbow Thursday, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
A
A.J. Vukovich
(CF) out — Vukovich is expected to miss roughly 2-3 months with a left shoulder injury, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
Out
J
Jordan Lawlar
(SS) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks transferred Lawlar (wrist) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Carlos Santana
(1B) 10-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Santana on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with a right adductor strain.
10-Day-IL
K
Kyle Amendt
(RP) day-to-day — Amendt underwent shoulder surgery Tuesday, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Blake Walston
(SP) 60-day IL — Arizona placed Walston (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Cristian Mena
(RP) 60-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Mena (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
J
Justin Martinez
(RP) 60-day IL — Martinez (elbow) is throwing from up to 120 feet on flat ground, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Andrew Saalfrank
(RP) 60-day IL — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Derek Law
(RP) out — Law (forearm) signed a minor-league contract with the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, Aaron Hughes of SI.com reports.
Out
T
Tommy Henry
(RP) out — The Diamondbacks re-signed Henry (elbow) to a minor-league contract Monday.
Out
Game Preview
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (270)
Total Over 15.5
Key Injuries
Griffin Canning 15-Day-IL
Bryan Hoeing 60-Day-IL
Geraldo Perdomo Day-To-Day
Zac Gallen Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks

+12.4 EV
per $100 wagered
San Diego Padres 64% Sharp Lean Calibrated
"Padres +102 ML +17.2 EV (58% model vs 49.5% breakeven), omega 2.2pt spread/8pt total edges on MC 21.4 proj"
58% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 58%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +8.0%
Line Movement
Current Arizona -2.2 / Padres +2.2 | O/U 16.0 | ML Arizona -117 / Padres +102
Movement No significant movement detected
Injuries balanced (-7% both sides, poor quality depth)
+17.2 EV on Padres ML at +102 (breakeven 49.5%, our 58% exceeds by 8.5%); spread EV +12.4 on +2.2; total over +28.6
FULL ANALYSIS
Models crush market with 2.2pt spread edge (omega 0 vs -2.2) and 8pt total edge (24 vs 16), MC 21.4 projected on 10K sims. Bayesian fuses to 58% Padres ML value (+17EV) confirmed by extreme $596K whales (62% away) + PM divergence despite sharp spread mix. Injuries balanced, no pitchers hurts but away undervalued vs 49.5% breakeven.
SHARP MONEY
11.9% spread sharp edge home but ML away; default to models/whales favoring away
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD San Diego Padres 2.2
+12.4 EV 64% 1u
MONEYLINE San Diego Padres None
+17.2 EV 67% 1u
TOTAL over 16.0
+28.6 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 67%
San Diego Padres 102
  • Posterior 58% away win vs 49.5% breakeven (+8.5% margin) with MC 46.8% away win
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
San Diego Padres 2.2
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market -2.2 (2.2pt edge) + MC away covers 46.8% at 0 (52%+ at +2.2)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 16.0
  • Omega total 24.0 + MC projected 21.4 vs market 16.0 (8pt edge)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Padres ML -113 (+2.1 EV) backed by $510k extreme whales + Kalshi edge vs Dbacks injuries
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