Home › NHL › St. Louis Blues @ Colorado Avalanche
NHL
St. Louis Blues
St. Louis Blues
Blues
Colorado Avalanche
Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK +26.2% EV
70% Strong
70% Strong
SPREAD
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche -230
"COL spread +25.4% EV at +190 (sharp 10.4% edge) + under 6.5 +16% EV (11.7% sharp); fade -230 ML juice"
EV / $100
+25.4
Win Prob
57%
Edge
+6.8%
Size
1.5u
MONEYLINE St. Louis Blues None
44%
TOTAL under 6.5
68%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors under side. 11.3% divergence on total with strong signal.
Sharp: under Boost: +3

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St. Louis Blues

Colorado Avalanche

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -205 / 173 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -200 / 178 -
Value Line - -200 / 170 -
Sharp Action Best Line -2.5 (190) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (122) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 1.5 (-175)
Market Consensus - - Over 6.0 (-110)
Fair Value Fair Value 130 / -130 -190 / 190 O/U -104 / 104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

St. Louis Blues

P
Pavel Buchnevich
(LW) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day

Colorado Avalanche

N
Nicolas Roy
(C) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
C
Cale Makar
(D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
St. Louis Blues @ Colorado Avalanche
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread -2.5 (190)
Total Over 1.5
Key Injuries
Pavel Buchnevich Day-To-Day
Nicolas Roy Day-To-Day
Cale Makar Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

St. Louis Blues @ Colorado Avalanche

+25.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Colorado Avalanche 70% Strong
"COL spread +25.4% EV at +190 (sharp 10.4% edge) + under 6.5 +16% EV (11.7% sharp); fade -230 ML juice"
57% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 57%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +6.8%
Line Movement
Current COL -230 ML / Blues +190 / Spread COL -230 (Home +120 / Away -142) / Total 6.5
Movement No movement data
No positive EV on Colorado ML due to -230 juice requiring 71.4% breakeven; model sees only 56.8% true prob. Strongest EV in spread home (+25.4% at Bovada +190) and under (+16.4% at +135)
Model: 47.7% win rate | n=241 — Reduce 63-72 conf by 5; cap props at 60 (unvalidated rosters)
FULL ANALYSIS
Colorado -230 ML is -EV trap (71% breakeven vs model 57% prob) but spread home +25% EV at Bovada +190 exploits 10.4% sharp edge vs Pinnacle fair 43%. Under 6.5 has 11.7% sharp divergence (+16% EV at +135) with NHL variance favoring low-scoring faves. Injuries to Makar/Roy/Buchnevich cap offense; model vs COL 8-5, vs STL 7-5.
SHARP MONEY
Strong sharp signals on spread home (10.4% edge) and total under (11.7% edge); ML weak away lean. Pinnacle fair value shows spread home +EV vs retail
Recommended Sizing
1.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Colorado Avalanche -230
+25.4 EV 70% 1.5u
MONEYLINE St. Louis Blues None
-5.1 EV 44%
TOTAL under 6.5
+16.4 EV 68% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 67%
St. Louis Blues 190
  • Makar OUT removes Colorado's top defenseman (121 points leader context); NHL home favorites without top D win <52% historically
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
St. Louis Blues 1.5
  • Avalanche missing Makar (elite defenseman) projects to -15% team strength at home
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 6.5
  • Key injuries to Makar/Roy reduce Avalanche offense; NHL totals lean under without elite D (avg -0.4 goals/game)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Blues ML +190 (+10.5 EV): Makar OUT tanks Avs to 58% model win prob vs -230 juice
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