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MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
Colorado Rockies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +30.1% EV ALIGNED
68% Strong
68% Strong
SPREAD
Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 1.5
"Pirates spread +1.5 at +175 offers +30.1% EV — sharp edge 16.5%, Coors Field inflation ignored by market"
EV / $100
+12.2
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+0.2%
Size
1.5u
MONEYLINE Pittsburgh Pirates None
55%
TOTAL over 12.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 16.5% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1269903 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 573 trades Kalshi: 67 trades Largest: $48380
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: -1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +10.5
Win Prob
35.7%
ML
180 / -180

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Pittsburgh Pirates

Colorado Rockies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 121 / -144 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 125 / -139 -
Value Line - 118 / -148 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-240) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-118) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 12.0 (-102)
De-Vigged Fair Value -111 / 111 132 / -132 O/U 105 / -105
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Pittsburgh Pirates

K
Konnor Griffin
(SS) 10-day IL — Griffin (forearm) threw from 150 feet with no pain Friday, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
O
Oneil Cruz
(CF) 10-day IL — Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that Cruz (hand) is facing an estimated recovery timeline of 4-6 weeks, Danny Demilio of PittsburghBaseballNow.com reports.
10-Day-IL
W
Wilber Dotel
(RP) 15-day IL — The Pirates recalled Dotel from Triple-A Indianapolis on Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
A
Anthony Solometo
(SP) day-to-day — Solometo underwent left shoulder labrum surgery and is expected to be sidelined until at least April 2027, Mark Chiarelli of Baseball America reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mitch Jebb
(LF) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
C
Chris Devenski
(RP) 60-day IL — Devenski (illness) was transferred from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
60-Day-IL
O
Oddanier Mosqueda
(RP) day-to-day — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mike Clevinger
(RP) day-to-day — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
S
Sean Sullivan
(SP) day-to-day — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
Day-To-Day

Colorado Rockies

T
Tanner Gordon
(RP) 15-day IL — Gordon (hip) will face hitters Saturday and could begin a rehab assignment shortly thereafter, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Brenton Doyle
(CF) 10-day IL — Doyle (oblique) worked in the batting cage Monday, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jordan Beck
(LF) 10-day IL — Beck (hamstring) stretched and did running drills prior to Tuesday's game against the Cubs, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
M
Mickey Moniak
(LF) 10-day IL — Moniak (ankle) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Albuquerque on Thursday, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Chase Dollander
(SP) 60-day IL — Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer said Friday that Dollander will likely undergo surgery to repair the UCL in his right elbow, Kevin Henry of The Denver Gazette reports.
60-Day-IL
W
Welinton Herrera
(RP) 60-day IL — Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer announced Monday that Herrera (elbow) has been diagnosed with a torn UCL and will miss the remainder of the season, Jack Janes of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
McCade Brown
(SP) 60-day IL — Brown (shoulder) had been scheduled to throw a live bullpen session this weekend, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jose Quintana
(SP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Quintana on the 15-day injured list Monday with a left elbow sprain.
60-Day-IL
R
RJ Petit
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brayan Castillo
(RP) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
P
Pierson Ohl
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kris Bryant
(DH) 60-day IL — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Case Williams
(SP) day-to-day — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Thomas
(CF) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-240)
Total Over 12.0
Key Injuries
Konnor Griffin 10-Day-IL
Oneil Cruz 10-Day-IL
Tanner Gordon 15-Day-IL
Brenton Doyle 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies

+12.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Pittsburgh Pirates 68% Strong
"Pirates spread +1.5 at +175 offers +30.1% EV — sharp edge 16.5%, Coors Field inflation ignored by market"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 55%
Edge +0.2%
Line Movement
Current PIT -149 / COL +123, Total 12.0
Movement No significant movement detected
Coors Field altitude inflates scoring by ~35% Both teams have significant day-to-day injuries (~10% impact each)
Negligible edge on moneyline — market is efficient here. Real edge is on the spread and total.
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money is hammering Pirates spread with 16.5% edge — Pinnacle fair value vs retail shows +30.1% EV. The total at 12.0 is absurdly low for Coors Field; model projects 22.5 runs. Whale signals ($1.27M volume) side with home but sharp books disagree — default to sharp side. Both teams have ~10% injury impact, roughly canceling out. Spread is the play; total over is a high-variance lean.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on spread is 16.5% with strong signal — Pinnacle fair value vs retail books shows +30.1% EV on Pirates spread. Whales side with home (64% confidence, $1.27M volume) but sharp books disagree, so default to sharp side.
Recommended Sizing
1.5u
Positive EV with multiple confirming factors. Standard sizing.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Pittsburgh Pirates 1.5
+12.2 EV 68% 1.5u
MONEYLINE Pittsburgh Pirates None
+0.4 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL over 12.0
+15.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Pittsburgh Pirates -149
  • Bayesian posterior shows +0.2pp edge — too small to justify full unit
SPREAD PICK
● 68%
Pittsburgh Pirates 1.5
  • Sharp edge 16.5% on Pirates spread with strong signal — Pinnacle fair value (47.3%) vs retail (+175) yields +30.1% EV
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 12.0
  • Bayesian posterior shows +15.2pp edge on over — model projects 22.5 total, market at 12.0 is extreme outlier
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Coors Field total of 11.5 is 11 runs below OMEGA projection — Bayesian edge +15.2pp, take the over at 1.5u
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