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San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs
Spurs
Milwaukee Bucks
Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK
72% Strong
72% Strong
SPREAD
San Antonio Spurs San Antonio Spurs -17.5
"Spurs -17.5 (+5.2 EV): Bucks -25% w/ Giannis out, model 92% SA win proj vs 95% implied"
EV / $100
+5.2
Win Prob
92%
Edge
+42.0%
Size
1.5u
MONEYLINE San Antonio Spurs
78%
TOTAL Under 226.5 226.5
68%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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San Antonio Spurs

Milwaukee Bucks

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - 1139 / -1806 ↑ -
Pinnacle 18.0 (-111) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 226.0 (-110)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

San Antonio Spurs

D
David Jones Garcia
(F) out — Jones Garcia underwent ankle surgery Wednesday and will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 season, Tom Orsborn of the San Antonio Express-News reports.
Out

Milwaukee Bucks

B
Bobby Portis
(F) day-to-day — Portis (wrist) is listed as questionable for Saturday's game against the Spurs.
Day-To-Day
M
Myles Turner
(C) day-to-day — Turner (calf) is listed as questionable for Saturday's game against the Spurs.
Day-To-Day
K
Kevin Porter Jr.
(G) out — Porter (knee) is out for Saturday's game against the Clippers.
Out
G
Giannis Antetokounmpo
(F) out — Antetokounmpo (knee) has been ruled out for Saturday's game against the Spurs.
Out
K
Kyle Kuzma
(F) out — Kuzma (Achilles) is questionable for Saturday's meeting with the Spurs.
Out
G
Gary Harris
(G) out — Harris (groin) is questionable for Saturday's game versus San Antonio.
Out
Game Preview
San Antonio Spurs @ Milwaukee Bucks
until tip-off
Current Line
Spread 18.0 (-111)
Total Over 226.0
Key Injuries
David Jones Garcia Out
Bobby Portis Day-To-Day
Myles Turner Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

San Antonio Spurs @ Milwaukee Bucks

+5.2 EV
per $100 wagered
San Antonio Spurs -17.5 72% Strong
"Spurs -17.5 (+5.2 EV): Bucks -25% w/ Giannis out, model 92% SA win proj vs 95% implied"
92% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 92%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +42.0%
Line Movement
Current SA -17.5 (-112) / Bucks +17.5 (-108); Total 226.5; ML Bucks +1100 / SA -2100
Movement No movement data
Positive EV on SA ML despite vig due to Bucks' -25% team impact from Giannis out
Model: 73.2% win rate | n=41 — Strong recent form 30-11 last 7d; 2-0 vs Spurs
FULL ANALYSIS
Bucks crippled by Giannis out (-25% net rating hit) plus Kuzma/Porter out leaves Rollins as lone scorer vs Spurs' Wemby/Fox/Castle core. Model sees SA 92% win prob (110-92 score proj) crushing -17.5 in 78% sims. Under leans on Bucks' 22 PPG drop without stars; CLV projects steam to -19.
SHARP MONEY
Heavy public fade on Bucks with Giannis out; line this wide suggests sharp acceptance of Spurs dominance
Recommended Sizing
1.5u
Positive EV with multiple confirming factors. Standard sizing.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD San Antonio Spurs -17.5 -17.5
+5.2 EV 72% 1.5u
MONEYLINE San Antonio Spurs
+4.4 EV 78% 1u
TOTAL Under 226.5 226.5
+3.1 EV 68% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 65%
Milwaukee Bucks -185
  • 65% model win prob vs 64.9% implied; perfect 2-0 vs Spurs
SPREAD PICK
● 68%
Milwaukee Bucks
  • Bucks home with Giannis vs depleted Spurs missing Fox + key depth (Kornet out)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 62%
UNDER 218.5 218.5
  • Both teams missing 5+ rotation players; model totals 218 vs line
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Bucks -4.5 (68% conf, +3.8EV): Home w/ Giannis vs Fox-DTD Spurs, model 65% win prob
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