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MLB
New York Yankees
New York Yankees
Yankees
Texas Rangers
Rangers
Texas Rangers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +47.9% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 1.5
"Over 8.5 +15.2pp Bayesian edge (65% prob, MC 19.3 runs); Yankees ML +5.1pp (55%) with sharp confirmation"
EV / $100
+4.8
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+5.1%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
55%
TOTAL over 8.5
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 18.0% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1037484 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 546 trades Kalshi: 100 trades Largest: $45538
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +120.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
33.4%
ML
199 / -199

Player Props Engine

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New York Yankees

Texas Rangers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -102 / -118 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 103 / -113 -
Value Line - -108 / -115 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-400) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-163) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-111)
De-Vigged Fair Value -154 / 154 108 / -108 O/U -104 / 104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Yankees

A
Angel Chivilli
(RP) 15-day IL — Manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Chivilli (shoulder) will be shut down from throwing for roughly three weeks, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Ben Hess
(SP) day-to-day — Double-A Somerset placed Hess on its 7-day injured list April 18 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
G
Giancarlo Stanton
(DH) 10-day IL — The Yankees placed Stanton (calf) on the 10-day injured list Tuesday.
10-Day-IL
A
Anthony Volpe
(SS) 10-day IL — The Yankees have yet to decide whether Volpe (shoulder) will be activated from the 10-day injured list for their series this weekend against the Orioles, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Carlos Rodon
(SP) 15-day IL — Rodon (elbow) is scheduled to make his next rehab start Thursday with Double-A Somerset, Erik Boland of Newsday reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Gerrit Cole
(SP) 15-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said thatCole (elbow) will make his next rehab appearance with Double-A Somerset on Wednesday, Erik Boland of Newsday reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor signed a minor-league contract with the Angels on Monday.
Day-To-Day

Texas Rangers

C
Carter Baumler
(RP) 15-day IL — Baumler (intercostal) allowed one run on two hits over one inning in a rehab appearance at Triple-A Round Rock last Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
C
Cody Bradford
(SP) 60-day IL — Bradford (elbow) experienced a setback in his throwing program and will be shut down for at least a few days, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Robert Garcia
(RP) 15-day IL — The Rangers placed Garcia on the 15-day injured list Thursday with left shoulder inflammation.
15-Day-IL
W
Wyatt Langford
(LF) 10-day IL — The Rangers placed Langford (forearm) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
L
Luis Curvelo
(RP) 15-day IL — The Rangers placed Curvelo on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with a right shoulder impingement, Kennedi Landry of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Chris Martin
(RP) 15-day IL — Martin (1-1) picked up the loss Friday, allowing two runs on two hits over one inning in a 5-3 loss to the Reds.
15-Day-IL
C
Cody Freeman
(3B) 10-day IL — Freeman (back) has resumed baseball activities, Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News reports.
10-Day-IL
S
Sebastian Walcott
(SS) day-to-day — Rangers GM Ross Fenstermaker said Tuesday that Walcott could be ready for game action in August, "if all things according to plan" in his rehab from the internal brace procedure he underwent on his right elbow, Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jordan Montgomery
(SP) 60-day IL — Montgomery (elbow) will throw his fifth bullpen session Tuesday, Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reports.
60-Day-IL
N
Nabil Crismatt
(SP) out — Crismatt will undergo surgery to repair a torn UCL in his right elbow, Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reports.
Out
D
Declan Cronin
(RP) out — Cronin (elbow) signed a two-year, minor-league contract with the Rangers on Tuesday, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.
Out
Game Preview
New York Yankees @ Texas Rangers
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-400)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Angel Chivilli 15-Day-IL
Ben Hess Day-To-Day
Carter Baumler 15-Day-IL
Cody Bradford 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Yankees @ Texas Rangers

+4.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Texas Rangers 60% Lean
"Over 8.5 +15.2pp Bayesian edge (65% prob, MC 19.3 runs); Yankees ML +5.1pp (55%) with sharp confirmation"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +5.1%
Line Movement
Current NYY -1.5 -120 / TEX +1.5 +100, ML TEX +100 / NYY -120, Total 8.5 -110
Movement No significant movement
Modest +1.0 EV on Yankees ML at -120; massive +24.5 EV on over 8.5
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion gives Yankees 55.1% ML (+5.1pp edge) and over 65.2% (+15.2pp) with MC projecting 19.3 runs vs 8.5 line. Sharps hammer away spread (18% edge, +48% EV spot), outweighing extreme whale volume on Rangers. Injuries equal (-7% both), omega even spread confirms market inefficiency.
SHARP MONEY
Strong 18% sharp edge on away spread + moderate 1.9% ML edge; +47.9% EV on away spread at select books
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Texas Rangers 1.5
+4.8 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
+1.0 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.5
+13.8 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
New York Yankees -120
  • Bayesian posterior 55.1% vs devigged market 50.0% (+5.1pp edge)
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Texas Rangers 1.5
  • MC sims show 53% away cover at 0 with -0.8 margin; sharp 18% edge + +47.9% EV on away spread
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 62%
OVER 8.5
  • Bayesian posterior 65.2% vs market 50% (+15.2pp); MC projects 19.3 runs, omega 22.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Rangers +150: +2.1% Bayesian edge + $354k extreme whales/Kalshi 51% vs -190 juice
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