Mixed Martial Arts
Jim Miller
Miller
Jared Gordon
Gordon
Whale Activity Detected
$9812 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home
Polymarket: 9 trades
Largest: $4961
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAJim Miller
Jared Gordon
ELO Model Lines
MODELSpread
—
Moneyline
JAR -100
/
JIM -100
Win Probability
50%
-
50%
ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Jim Miller @ Jared Gordon
+3.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Jared Gordon
57%
Lean
"Gordon ML -115 (omega_model): $1.6K whales 100% home + Miller age fade (+2.8 EV)"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
55%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+5.0%
Line Movement
Current
omega_model: ML Jared Gordon -115 / Jim Miller -105; Spread Jared Gordon -0.5 (-110); Total 2.5 (-110)
Movement
N/A (pre-market, model-generated)
Marginal +EV on home side at model odds despite neutral posterior
FULL ANALYSIS
No odds/models/injuries; Bayesian posterior even at 50% but minor whale ($1,626, 100% Gordon) + Miller age 42 (-12%) tilts to 55% home win. Prior H2H Gordon decision win (104-68 strikes). 3-rounder projects over 2.5 (58%) but totals weak historically.
SHARP MONEY
Minor whale volume $1,626 from 1 wallet (100% home, lifetime P&L $0)
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
57%
Jared Gordon -115
- Bayesian posterior 50% adjusted to 55% on minor whale home action
SPREAD PICK
○
57%
Jared Gordon -0.5
- Model spread -0.5 equivalent to ML with 55% cover prob vs implied 52.4%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
52%
OVER 2.5
- Veteran grappler matchup projects 58% to decision (over 2.5 rounds)
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
50/50 model even but $1.6K minor whales 100% on Gordon ML (-110 model, +0.1 EV)
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