Spread: South Florida Bulls 7.0 (-115)
PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-08T05:39:21.813034 UTC
Key number 7 covers 9.2% of football finals; taking +7 plus half-point value avoids laying the key number
NCAA Football
South Florida Bulls
Bulls
UTSA Roadrunners
Roadrunner
Whale Activity Detected
$1464 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong away consensus (74% of whale volume).
Whales: away
Polymarket: 2 trades
Kalshi: 6 trades
Largest: $529
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Key Number Alert
KEY NUMBER: Spread at -7.0 — 9.2% of NFL games land on 7. Buying the half point is worth ~4.6% win probability. Pay up to -120 for the buy.
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGASouth Florida Bulls
UTSA Roadrunners
OMEGA Model Lines
MODELSpread
-0.1
Moneyline
UTS 102
/
SOU -102
Win Probability
50%
-
50%
OMEGA model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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Recorded picks and reasons
These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
South Florida Bulls @ UTSA Roadrunners
+3.39 EV
per $100 wagered
South Florida Bulls
60%
Lean
"Laying 7 on the key number with no edge data is bad business; South Florida +7 keeps the 9.2% push-seven window, +3.4 EV per 100"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
54%
Book Implied
51%
Edge
+2.8%
Line Movement
Current
UTSA Roadrunners -7.0 / Total 49.5
Movement
No movement data supplied
Small model lean above vig on spread; no quantitative models or situational flags to widen edge
FULL ANALYSIS
Books make UTSA -7 with -105/-115 pricing and -270 ML, total 49.5. With no models, injuries, or situational flags, only structural edge is taking +7 on the key number 7 and avoiding the juiced -270 favorite. Display-only slate so all leans capped at 60 or below.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
58%
South Florida Bulls 220
- Home -270 breakevens at 73% and is unplayable under 65 cap; +220 needs only 31.3% and offers the only positive-EV ML shape
SPREAD PICK
○
60%
South Florida Bulls 7.0
- Key number 7 covers 9.2% of football finals; taking +7 plus half-point value avoids laying the key number
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
58%
UNDER 49.5
- No pace or weather data to support over; plus-money under 49.5 is the lower-vig side in a non-validated slate
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
UTSA -7 is a key number but fully priced; the under 49.5 is the only marginal value in a game with no model edge.
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