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Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +54.7% EV
62% Lean
62% Lean
SPREAD
Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
"Over 8 +15.2pp edge (MC 19.7 total) + Rays -1.5 sharp/whale steam despite MC TOR lean"
EV / $100
+5.4
Win Prob
56%
Edge
+5.8%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
55%
TOTAL over 8.0
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.0% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$804352 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (78% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 196 trades Kalshi: 1467 trades Largest: $29852
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +120.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
41.3%
ML
142 / -142

Player Props Engine

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Toronto Blue Jays

Tampa Bay Rays

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -122 / 102 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -118 / 107 -
Value Line - -115 / -108 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (350) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (176) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-106)
De-Vigged Fair Value 191 / -191 -112 / 112 O/U 101 / -101
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Toronto Blue Jays

A
Addison Barger
(RF) 10-day IL — Barger (ankles) went 1-for-2 with a walk and a two-run home run while serving as the designated hitter in his first rehab game with Single-A Dunedin on Sunday.
10-Day-IL
G
George Springer
(DH) day-to-day — Springer (foot) is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Twins, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports.
Day-To-Day
N
Nathan Lukes
(RF) 10-day IL — Lukes (hamstring) resumed hitting in the batting cages Friday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jose Berrios
(SP) 15-day IL — Berrios (elbow) will appear in one more rehab outing with Triple-A Buffalo on Sunday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Chay Yeager
(RP) day-to-day — Yeager will undergo season-ending UCL surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
Day-To-Day
Y
Yariel Rodriguez
(RP) day-to-day — The Blue Jays reassigned Rodriguez to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day
J
Javen Coleman
(P) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
A
Alejandro Kirk
(C) 10-day IL — Kirk (thumb) has begun a throwing program at the Blue Jays' complex in Florida, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
10-Day-IL
M
Max Scherzer
(SP) 15-day IL — Scherzer (1-3) took the loss Friday, surrendering seven runs on six hits -- including three home runs -- and three walks over 2.1 innings as the Blue Jays fell 8-6 to the Guardians. He failed to strike out a batter.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yimi Garcia
(RP) 60-day IL — Garcia (elbow) will throw live batting practice Wednesday, Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reports.
60-Day-IL
C
CJ Stubbs
(C) day-to-day — The Blue Jays signed Stubbs to a minor-league contract Friday that includes an invitation to spring training.
Day-To-Day
S
Shane Bieber
(SP) 60-day IL — Bieber (elbow) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Geovanny Jesus Planchart
(C) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
L
Lazaro Estrada
(RP) 15-day IL — Toronto optioned Estrada to Triple-A Buffalo on Sunday.
15-Day-IL
C
Cody Ponce
(SP) 60-day IL — Ponce underwent surgery Friday to repair the ACL in his right knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Anthony Santander
(RF) 60-day IL — Toronto transferred Santander (shoulder) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
60-Day-IL
B
Bowden Francis
(SP) 60-day IL — Manager John Schneider revealed Tuesday that Francis is undergoing UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow and will miss the 2026 season, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL

Tampa Bay Rays

Y
Yandy Diaz
(1B) day-to-day — Diaz (side) is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Giants, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mason Englert
(RP) 15-day IL — Englert (forearm) is set to throw a bullpen session Sunday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joe Boyle
(SP) 15-day IL — Boyle (elbow) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session Sunday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Ryan Pepiot
(SP) 60-day IL — Pepiot will undergo surgery on his right hip May 13 and miss the rest of the 2026 season, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Gavin Lux
(LF) 10-day IL — Lux (shoulder/ankle) went 1-for-3 with two walks and a run scored Tuesday in a rehab game for Triple-A Durham.
10-Day-IL
E
Edwin Uceta
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rays transferred Uceta (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
T
TJ Nichols
(P) day-to-day — Double-A Montgomery placed Nichols on its 7-day injured list April 7 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
T
Tre' Morgan
(1B) day-to-day — Triple-A Durham activated Morgan (quadricep) from its 7-day injured list Tuesday.
Day-To-Day
A
Alfredo Zarraga
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
K
Keyshawn Askew
(RP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
M
Michael Grove
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rays signed Grove to a major-league contract Tuesday and placed him on the 15-day injured list due to right shoulder surgery.
60-Day-IL
A
Austin Vernon
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays have shut Vernon down from throwing due to right elbow soreness, per MLB.com.
Day-To-Day
T
Ty Johnson
(SP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
S
Steven Wilson
(RP) 60-day IL — Wilson said Sunday that his lower back has responded well to an injection, and he hopes to be ready to make his season debut shortly after Opening Day, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
J
John Rooney
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays signed Rooney (elbow) to a minor-league contract Nov. 15.
Day-To-Day
L
Logan Driscoll
(C) day-to-day — The Rays released Driscoll (ankle) on Friday, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Manuel Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — Rodriguez will have right elbow surgery Aug. 8 to address a flexor tendon repair, and his UCL will be evaluated during the surgery to determine if any additional procedures are needed, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (350)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Addison Barger 10-Day-IL
George Springer Day-To-Day
Yandy Diaz Day-To-Day
Mason Englert 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays

+5.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Tampa Bay Rays 62% Lean
"Over 8 +15.2pp edge (MC 19.7 total) + Rays -1.5 sharp/whale steam despite MC TOR lean"
56% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 56%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +5.8%
Line Movement
Current Spread: Rays -1.5 -120 | ML: Rays -120 / Blue Jays +100 | Total: 8.0
Movement No significant movement
Marginal +EV on Rays ML but <5pp over breakeven (54.5%), favors spread/total
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion posts +15.2pp over 8 edge with MC/omega totals 19.7-22.5 crushing market line amid no pitcher data. Rays ML +1.2pp slight edge boosted by extreme $804k whale home (78% conf) +13.7% sharp spread home but VERY_LOW model agreement (MC TOR 51.5% win) caps at lean. Equal -10.6% injuries neutral, no situational flags; degraded 68% data quality warrants caution.
SHARP MONEY
13.7% sharp edge on Rays spread + extreme whale volume ($804k, 38 wallets, 78% home) overrides weak ML sharp away signal
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
+5.4 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
+2.3 EV 55%
TOTAL over 8.0
+13.8 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Tampa Bay Rays -120
  • +1.2pp Bayesian posterior edge confirmed by 52.5% PM consensus and extreme whales
SPREAD PICK
○ 62%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
  • Strong 13.7% sharp spread divergence +53.6% EV vs Pinnacle fair (34.1% home cover) + extreme whale home consensus
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 62%
OVER 8.0
  • +15.2pp Bayesian posterior over 8 (MC proj 19.7, omega 22.5) vs market neutral
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Rays +149 w/ 55% model prob (15pt edge) + $734k extreme whales vs MC under 22.5 (71%)
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