Mixed Martial Arts
Song Yadong
Yadong
Deiveson Figueiredo
Figueiredo
Player Props Results
Final Box ScoreSong Yadong
Deiveson Figueiredo
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Song Yadong @ Deiveson Figueiredo
+3.6 EV
per $100 wagered
Deiveson Figueiredo
58%
Lean
"Figueiredo at +108: thin edge from resume gap + whale signal, but poor data quality caps confidence at 58."
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
52%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+2.0%
Line Movement
Current
N/A
Movement
No market data available — model generating independent lines.
No situational flags — venue and rest data unavailable.
At model-implied fair odds (+108 for Figueiredo), a 52% win probability yields +3.6% EV. Edge is marginal and driven entirely by the absence of market friction.
FULL ANALYSIS
Figueiredo is the more proven commodity at elite level — his win over Cody Garbrandt and competitive trilogy with Moreno dwarf Yadong's resume. The whale signal ($17K on Figueiredo) is the only external confirmation, but with no sharp book data to cross-reference, the edge is thin. At model-implied +108, a 52% win probability yields +3.6% EV — a marginal lean, not a strong play. The pick'em spread mirrors this. Total under 2.5 is a coin flip given both fighters' durability.
SHARP MONEY
Whale signal shows $17,824 on AWAY (Figueiredo) with 100% conviction from 4 profitable wallets. However, no sharp book data exists to confirm. Signal is isolated and low-confidence.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
58%
Deiveson Figueiredo 108
- Figueiredo is the more proven elite-level fighter with a win over Garbrandt and a split decision loss to Moreno — Yadong has not faced this caliber of wrestle-boxing
SPREAD PICK
○
55%
Deiveson Figueiredo 0.0
- Pick 'em spread mirrors moneyline edge — Figueiredo's wrestling advantage gives him a path to win rounds even if he doesn't finish
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
55%
UNDER 2.5
- Figueiredo has 9 finishes in 22 wins (41% finish rate) and Yadong has 7 finishes in 21 wins (33%) — both have paths to early stoppage but also high-level durability
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Figueiredo -125: takedown defense (87%) neutralizes Yadong's wrestling, championship experience edge in 5-round fight, +2.8 EV
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