Ligue 1
Nice
Nice
Marseille
Marseille
Player Props Engine
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Marseille
Model Lines
MODELSpread
0.1
Moneyline
MAR -102
/
NIC 102
Win Probability
50%
-
50%
Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Nice @ Marseille
+3.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Marseille
58%
Lean
Raw
"Marseille -1.5 +120 (4.5% edge) as ML juice kills value; Greenwood props over on 0.54 GPG pace"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
65%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+15.0%
Line Movement
Current
Marseille -1.5 (+120) / Nice +1.5 (-165); Total 3.5; ML Marseille -205 / Nice +500
Movement
No significant movement
Market-efficient pricing with no edge; heavy ML juice kills value on favorite
FULL ANALYSIS
Marseille -205 ML too juiced (67% breakeven) with our 65% prob; value shifts to -1.5 +120 (50% cover est vs 45.5% breakeven). Ligue 1 rivalry unders hit 55% at 3.5; Greenwood 0.54 GPG anchors attack. Poor data (21%) caps edges.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
55%
Marseille -205
- -205 breakeven 67.2% but poor data caps our prob at 65%; marginal no-edge spot
SPREAD PICK
○
58%
Marseille -1.5
- Marseille -1.5 at +120 offers 4.5% edge vs breakeven (45.5%) with our 50% cover prob from home dominance in Ligue 1 derbies
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
55%
UNDER 3.5
- Ligue 1 avg 2.7 goals/game; model projects 2.8 total with no pace data but historical under bias
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Marseille -1.5 +120 (4.5% edge) as ML juice kills value; Greenwood props over on 0.54 GPG pace
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