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Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
Miami Marlins
Marlins
Miami Marlins
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
67% Sharp Lean
67% Sharp Lean
MONEYLINE
Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies
"Rockies +163 undpriced (58% our prob vs 66% implied), +4.2 EV with Marlins injury cascade"
EV / $100
+4.2
Win Prob
58%
Edge
+8.0%
Size
1u
SPREAD Miami Marlins -1.5
64%
TOTAL Under 7.5 7.5
69%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Colorado Rockies

Miami Marlins

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - -186 / 166 ↑ -
Pinnacle -1.5 (120) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 7.5 (-103)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Colorado Rockies

R
RJ Petit
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tyler Freeman
(RF) 10-day IL — The Rockies placed Freeman (back) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
M
McCade Brown
(SP) 15-day IL — The Rockies placed Brown (shoulder) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
B
Blaine Crim
(1B) 10-day IL — The Rockies placed Crim (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
P
Pierson Ohl
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
Z
Zac Veen
(LF) 10-day IL — The Rockies placed Veen (knee) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
M
Mickey Moniak
(RF) day-to-day — Moniak was removed from Monday's exhibition after injuring his right ring finger while diving back into first base, Kevin Henry of The Denver Gazette reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Case Williams
(SP) day-to-day — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brayan Castillo
(RP) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Thomas
(CF) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Kris Bryant
(DH) 60-day IL — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jeff Criswell
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Criswell (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL

Miami Marlins

E
Esteury Ruiz
(LF) 10-day IL — The Marlins placed Ruiz (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday, retroactive to Sunday.
10-Day-IL
M
Maximo Acosta
(SS) 10-day IL — The Marlins announced Sunday that Acosta has been diagnosed with a Grade 1 left oblique strain and is expected to be out for 3-4 weeks, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Adam Mazur
(SP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Mazur (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kyle Stowers
(LF) 10-day IL — The Marlins placed Stowers (hamstring) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
T
Thomas White
(SP) day-to-day — The Marlins reassigned White (oblique) to minor-league camp Tuesday.
Day-To-Day
R
Ronny Henriquez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Henriquez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jesus Tinoco
(RP) out — The Marlins re-signed Tinoco (elbow) to a minor-league contract Jan. 5.
Out
Game Preview
Colorado Rockies @ Miami Marlins
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (120)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
RJ Petit 60-Day-IL
Tyler Freeman 10-Day-IL
Esteury Ruiz 10-Day-IL
Maximo Acosta 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Colorado Rockies @ Miami Marlins

+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Colorado Rockies 67% Sharp Lean
"Rockies +163 undpriced (58% our prob vs 66% implied), +4.2 EV with Marlins injury cascade"
58% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 58%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +8.0%
Line Movement
Current MIA -199 / COL +163 | Spread MIA -1.5 (est) | Total 7.5
Movement No movement data
+4.2 EV on Rockies ML at +163 vs 66.5% implied
Model: 57.1% win rate | n=21 — Based on N=21 graded MLB outcomes (12-9); 1-0 vs Rockies
FULL ANALYSIS
Marlins -199 ML overjuiced vs our 58% Rockies prob (+163 offers 4.2 EV) given MIA rebuild injuries and COL 1-0 model edge. Total 7.5 projects 8.0 but drops to 7.5 with early-season pitcher rust (model 57% unders). Fade heavy public on MIA in opener lacking venue/pitcher data.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Colorado Rockies
+4.2 EV 67% 1u
SPREAD Miami Marlins -1.5
+2.1 EV 64% 0.5u
TOTAL Under 7.5 7.5
+3.8 EV 69% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 65%
Miami Marlins -185
  • Marlins home dominance vs Rockies .285 wOBA allowed to RHP at home last season
SPREAD PICK
● 62%
Colorado Rockies
  • Rockies 58% ATS as road dogs >+140 ML (N=52); MIA 42% ATS as heavy home favs
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 68%
UNDER 7.0 7.0
  • Miami park suppresses runs 12% vs avg; both teams <4.2 RPG road/home early projections
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Under 7.0 +4.2 EV: Miami park -12% runs + dual SP injuries, model 68% confident
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