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MLB
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
Orioles
New York Yankees
Yankees
New York Yankees
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +47.9% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 1.5
"Model totals 22.5 vs 8.5 line (+15.2pp over edge, +24.5 EV); away +1.5 on sharp retail misprice"
EV / $100
+4.2
Win Prob
64%
Edge
+14.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
60%
TOTAL over 8.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 15.5% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$996294 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (81% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 390 trades Kalshi: 668 trades Largest: $19506
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +168.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
45.4%
ML
120 / -120

Player Props Engine

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Baltimore Orioles

New York Yankees

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -168 / 140 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -161 / 145 -
Value Line - -157 / 125 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (245) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (125) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-108)
De-Vigged Fair Value 133 / -133 -154 / 154 O/U -101 / 101
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Baltimore Orioles

R
Ryan Helsley
(RP) 15-day IL — Imaging on Helsley's right elbow came back negative Friday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jackson Holliday
(2B) 10-day IL — Holliday (hand) expects to resume his rehab assignment next week, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Trevor Rogers
(SP) 15-day IL — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Friday that he expects Rogers (illness) to return from the 15-day injured list when first eligible, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hans Crouse
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
W
Will Robertson
(LF) day-to-day — The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Ryan Noda
(1B) day-to-day — The Orioles reassigned Noda to Triple-A Norfolk on Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
D
Dean Kremer
(SP) 15-day IL — Kremer (quadriceps) is expected to miss several weeks, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Dietrich Enns
(RP) 15-day IL — Enns (foot) threw a clean inning in a rehab outing for Triple-A Norfolk on Friday.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yaramil Hiraldo
(RP) 60-day IL — Hiraldo is scheduled to meet with Dr. Neal ElAttrache on Monday to receive a second opinion on his inflamed right shoulder, Andy Kostka of TheBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Heston Kjerstad
(LF) 10-day IL — Kjerstad (hamstring) is running and participating in baseball activities, per MLB.com.
10-Day-IL
R
Ryan Mountcastle
(1B) 60-day IL — The Orioles placed Mountcastle (foot) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
Z
Zach Eflin
(SP) 60-day IL — Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jordan Westburg
(3B) 60-day IL — Westburg (elbow) will begin a throwing progression this week, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Richard Guasch
(SP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
L
Luis Vazquez
(SS) day-to-day — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Vazquez has been diagnosed with a broken right thumb, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Keagan Gillies
(P) day-to-day — Gillies will be sidelined for at least six weeks with a quad injury, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
Day-To-Day
F
Felix Bautista
(RP) 60-day IL — Bautista (shoulder) threw a baseball Tuesday for the first time since undergoing surgery last August, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Colin Selby
(RP) 60-day IL — The Orioles placed Selby on the 60-day injured list Saturday with right shoulder inflammation, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports.
60-Day-IL

New York Yankees

C
Carlos Rodon
(SP) 15-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Friday that Rodon's (elbow) next rehab start Tuesday with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre could be his last, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Giancarlo Stanton
(DH) 10-day IL — Stanton (calf) has not been cleared to resume running, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jasson Dominguez
(LF) day-to-day — Dominguez could be available off the bench Friday versus the Orioles after a CT scan on his left elbow came back negative, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Anthony Volpe
(SS) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Friday that Volpe (shoulder) will remain on his rehab assignment at Double-A Somerset through this weekend, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Gerrit Cole
(SP) 15-day IL — Cole (elbow) struck out three and allowed allowed three earned runs on three hits and zero walks across 5.2 innings Wednesday in his rehab start with Double-A Somerset.
15-Day-IL
A
Angel Chivilli
(RP) 15-day IL — Manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Chivilli (shoulder) will be shut down from throwing for roughly three weeks, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Ben Hess
(SP) day-to-day — Double-A Somerset placed Hess on its 7-day injured list April 18 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor signed a minor-league contract with the Angels on Monday.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (245)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Ryan Helsley 15-Day-IL
Jackson Holliday 10-Day-IL
Carlos Rodon 15-Day-IL
Giancarlo Stanton 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees

+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Baltimore Orioles 60% Lean
"Model totals 22.5 vs 8.5 line (+15.2pp over edge, +24.5 EV); away +1.5 on sharp retail misprice"
64% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 64%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +14.5%
Line Movement
Current ML: NYY -168 / BAL +139 | Total: 8.5 | Spread: NYY -168
Movement No significant line movement detected
Small +EV on NYY ML but juice requires 67.7% breakeven; total over shows +24.5 EV
FULL ANALYSIS
Massive total discrepancy: Omega/MC project 20-22 runs vs market 8.5 (65% over posterior, +24 EV). Yankees ML Bayesian edge 1.8pp but MC 45% win prob + heavy -168 juice = marginal/pass. Away +1.5 value from Pinnacle 57.8% fair cover + neutral MC margin 0.0.
SHARP MONEY
15.3% sharp edge on home spread + +47.8% EV on home runline at retail books
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Baltimore Orioles 1.5
+4.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
+2.9 EV 60%
TOTAL over 8.5
+24.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
New York Yankees -168
  • Bayesian posterior 64.5% vs 62.7% market but <5% over breakeven (PASS full units)
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Baltimore Orioles 1.5
  • Pinnacle fair away cover 57.8% vs retail implied ~50%; MC margin 0.0 favors +1.5 cover
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 8.5
  • Posterior 65.2% over vs 50% market; Omega 22.5 + MC 20.0 projected
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Yankees -2.2 spread +15.2% sharp edge +45.5% EV, whales $704k extreme home despite PM away lean
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