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NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans
Pelicans
Memphis Grizzlies
Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω DDN SI PICK
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Memphis Grizzlies Memphis Grizzlies -3.5
"Model-only read: Memphis -3.5 home lean vs a Pelicans team missing rim protector Yves Missi — no market odds to confirm, so LEAN units only"
Win Prob
57%
Edge
+6.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Memphis Grizzlies None
57%
TOTAL over 226.5
55%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 0.7% divergence on spread with weak signal. RLM detected on total.
Sharp: away
Whale Activity Detected
$864024 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (87% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 170 trades Kalshi: 433 trades Largest: $57781

Player Props Engine

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New Orleans Pelicans

Memphis Grizzlies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -235 / 195 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -233 / 200 -
Value Line - -240 / 188 -
Sharp Action Best Line -6.5 (-105) - -
Market Consensus -6.5 (-102) ↓ - -
Value Line -6.5 (-105) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 235.0 (-105)
Market Consensus - - Over 234.5 (-110)
Value Line - - Over 235.5 (-112)
De-Vigged Fair Value 104 / -104 -219 / 219 O/U -103 / 103
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New Orleans Pelicans

T
Trey Murphy III
(F) day-to-day — Murphy (knee) is listed as probable for Monday's game against the Grizzlies.
Day-To-Day
J
Jordan Poole
(G) out — Poole (ankle) has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Grizzlies.
Out
Y
Yves Missi
(C) out — Missi (knee) won't play in Saturday's game against Atlanta.
Out

Memphis Grizzlies

S
Scotty Pippen Jr.
(G) day-to-day — Pippen (back) is listed as doubtful for Monday's game against the Pelicans.
Day-To-Day
Q
Quinten Post
(C) day-to-day — Post (ankle) is questionable to suit up for Monday's game against New Orleans.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
New Orleans Pelicans @ Memphis Grizzlies
until tip-off
Current Line
Spread -6.5 (-105)
Total Over 235.0
Key Injuries
Trey Murphy III Day-To-Day
Jordan Poole Out
Scotty Pippen Jr. Day-To-Day
Quinten Post Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Moneyline: Memphis Grizzlies (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-31T21:43:24.557885 UTC

Model posterior gives Memphis a 57% home win probability; equivalent fair price is roughly -140, and Yves Missi being OUT compounds the Pelicans' interior disadvantage.

Player Prop: over (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-31T21:43:24.628364 UTC

With Murray, Poole, and Missi all out, Murphy is the clear No. 1 usage option — model projects 26-28 FGA-eligible volume vs a margin-driven Pelicans game script.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

New Orleans Pelicans @ Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis Grizzlies 55% Lean
"Model-only read: Memphis -3.5 home lean vs a Pelicans team missing rim protector Yves Missi — no market odds to confirm, so LEAN units only"
57% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 57%
Book Implied 51%
Edge +6.0%
Line Movement
Current No sportsbook odds available (source: omega_model)
Movement Unknown — no market quotes for this game
Model makes Memphis a 57% home favorite; at a fair -140 equivalent, +11.9 per 100 is the model-projected edge, but without market quotes it cannot be verified against real prices. Treat as projection only (display tier, not validated edge slate).
FULL ANALYSIS
No books have posted this game, so everything here is model-generated: Memphis -3.5 / -140 ML / total 226.5. The model makes Memphis a 57% home lean largely because Yves Missi is OUT for New Orleans, handing the Pelicans' rim protection job to Derik Queen and DeAndre Jordan. Both rosters carry a stack of day-to-day guards (Poole, Dejounte Murray; Post, Pippen Jr., Ty Jerome), so check injury reports before trusting any of these numbers.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Memphis Grizzlies -3.5
55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Memphis Grizzlies None
57% 0.5u
TOTAL over 226.5
55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 57%
Memphis Grizzlies None
  • Model posterior gives Memphis a 57% home win probability; equivalent fair price is roughly -140, and Yves Missi being OUT compounds the Pelicans' interior disadvantage
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Memphis Grizzlies -3.5
  • Model team strength/scoring model projection puts Memphis at roughly a 4.5-point home edge with Yves Missi (Pelicans rim protection) out, but no market price exists to confirm the number
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 226.5
  • scoring model scoring model projects 227 combined points; with Missi out the Pelicans lose their best rim protector, raising Memphis interior efficiency projections
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Grizzlies -18.5 model line vs Jones-less Pelicans on 86.4% Bayesian win prob — take the spread over the juiced ML, with Murphy III over 25.5 points as the injury-cascade prop
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