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Detroit Red Wings
Detroit Red Wings
Wings
Tampa Bay Lightning
Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK +27.4% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings 1.5
"Hedman IR craters TB (-25% lambda), DET ML +170 +13 EV vs Kalshi 63% implied"
EV / $100
+5.2
Win Prob
60%
Edge
+10.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Detroit Red Wings None
62%
TOTAL under 6.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 10.7% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$601288 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (97% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 37 trades Kalshi: 1145 trades Largest: $50360

Player Props Engine

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Detroit Red Wings

Tampa Bay Lightning

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -195 / 165 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -190 / 166 -
Value Line - -190 / 160 -
Sharp Action Best Line -2.5 (210) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (133) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 3.5 (-115)
Market Consensus - - Over 6.5 (103)
De-Vigged Fair Value 143 / -143 -179 / 179 O/U 110 / -110
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Detroit Red Wings

M
Mason Appleton
(C) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
M
Michael Rasmussen
(C) out — out
Out

Tampa Bay Lightning

Z
Zemgus Girgensons
(C) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
D
Darren Raddysh
(D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
P
Pontus Holmberg
(RW) out — out
Out
V
Victor Hedman
(D) Injured Reserve — ir-lt
Injured Reserve
M
Maxwell Crozier
(D) Injured Reserve — ir-lt
Injured Reserve
D
Dominic James
(C) Injured Reserve — James (leg) will be sidelined for 8-10 weeks after undergoing surgery, Benjamin Pierce of the Lightning's official site reports Thursday.
Injured Reserve
Game Preview
Detroit Red Wings @ Tampa Bay Lightning
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread -2.5 (210)
Total Over 3.5
Key Injuries
Mason Appleton Day-To-Day
Michael Rasmussen Out
Zemgus Girgensons Day-To-Day
Darren Raddysh Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Detroit Red Wings @ Tampa Bay Lightning

+5.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Detroit Red Wings 60% Lean
"Hedman IR craters TB (-25% lambda), DET ML +170 +13 EV vs Kalshi 63% implied"
60% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 60%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +10.0%
Line Movement
Current Puck Line TB -1.5 +120 / DET +1.5 -142, ML TB -205 / DET +170, Total 6.5 (-110)
Movement No significant line movement detected.
net_injury_away_advantage
DET ML +170 offers +13.4 EV at our 60% away win prob vs book 37% implied (devigged).
Model: 49.1% win rate | n=395 — Leans overconfident (51.7% actual vs labeled); ML profitable in strong tier, totals losing across board.
FULL ANALYSIS
TB hammered by injuries (Hedman IR tanks D by 25%, net -15.6% vs DET), dropping our home win prob to 40% vs book 67% implied. Prediction markets crush at 63% DET (extreme +28% delta), outweighing extreme whale home action. Sharp split but +EV on DET side; under 6.5 aligns with 52.5% fair prob.
SHARP MONEY
Strong sharp on home spread (10.7% edge), under total (4.2%), weak ML away; overall split.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Detroit Red Wings 1.5
+5.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Detroit Red Wings None
+13.4 EV 62% 0.5u
TOTAL under 6.5
+2.1 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 62%
Detroit Red Wings 170
  • TB injuries (Hedman IR, Holmberg out) hit -25% team lambda vs DET -9.5%, our 60% DET win crushes 37% implied
SPREAD PICK
● 60%
Detroit Red Wings 1.5
  • Net -15.6% injury impact on TB (Hedman IR critical D-man) boosts DET +1.5 cover to 62% vs fair 58.9%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 6.5
  • Sharp +4.2% edge on under (fair 52.5%), TB D injuries limit scoring despite Kucherov usage
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Tampa +153 ML +3.2 EV (46% prob >39.5% breakeven) on extreme whales despite injuries; Detroit +0 58% conf from net injury edge
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