Home › MLS › CF Montréal @ Atlanta United FC
MLS
CF Montréal
CF Montréal
Montréal
Atlanta United FC
FC
Atlanta United FC
Full Game Analysis
MLS
Ω OMEGA PICK
57% Lean
57% Lean
SPREAD
CF Montréal CF Montréal 0.5
"MTL +0.5 (0.5pt model edge) + Over 2.5 (+14.9pp posterior) on 7.5 OMEGA total vs 2.5 market"
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+4.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE CF Montréal None
54%
TOTAL over 2.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +5.0
Win Prob
40.3%
ML
148 / -148

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

CF Montréal

Atlanta United FC

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
-2.4
Moneyline
ATL 142 / CF -142
Win Probability
41% - 59%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
CF Montréal @ Atlanta United FC
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

CF Montréal @ Atlanta United FC

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
CF Montréal 57% Lean
"MTL +0.5 (0.5pt model edge) + Over 2.5 (+14.9pp posterior) on 7.5 OMEGA total vs 2.5 market"
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +4.0%
Line Movement
Current ATL -0.5 (-105) / MTL +0.5 (-130); O/U 2.5; ML ATL -100 / MTL +240
Movement No significant line movement detected
Atlanta turf +12% pace bias
+EV on MTL ML due to +240 price vs 54% posterior; massive edge on total over
FULL ANALYSIS
OMEGA Poisson+ELO at pick'em spread (0.0) vs market ATL -0.5, MC sims even margin (+0.0), Bayesian posterior 54% MTL ML win. Total crushed: market 2.5 vs OMEGA 7.5, Dixon-Coles 12.8 exp goals, over posterior 64.9% despite totals weakness. Atlanta turf pace +12% boosts scoring; poor data caps conf.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD CF Montréal 0.5
+3.2 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE CF Montréal None
+83.6 EV 54%
TOTAL over 2.5
+14.9 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 54%
CF Montréal 240
  • Bayesian posterior 54% vs market-implied 29.4% breakeven at +240
SPREAD PICK
○ 57%
CF Montréal 0.5
  • OMEGA spread at 0.0 vs market -0.5 gives 0.5pt edge to MTL +0.5
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 2.5
  • Posterior 64.9% over 2.5 vs 50% implied; OMEGA total 7.5, MC proj 6.6, Dixon-Coles 12.8
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
MTL +0.5 (0.5pt model edge) + Over 2.5 (+14.9pp posterior) on 7.5 OMEGA total vs 2.5 market
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