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MLB
Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
Sox
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
Detroit Tigers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +51.3% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 1.5
"65% Bayesian over 7.0 (+24.5 EV) as models explode to 22.5 total vs tight market line"
EV / $100
+6.8
Win Prob
68%
Edge
+17.9%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Boston Red Sox None
55%
TOTAL over 7.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 17.5% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$781638 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong away consensus (91% of whale volume).
Whales: away Polymarket: 167 trades Largest: $93024
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +240.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.5
Win Prob
44.4%
ML
125 / -125

Player Props Engine

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Boston Red Sox

Detroit Tigers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -230 / 190 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -220 / 194 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (220) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (105) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.0 (100)
De-Vigged Fair Value 111 / -111 -209 / 209 O/U 107 / -107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Boston Red Sox

S
Sonny Gray
(SP) 15-day IL — Gray (hamstring) will throw a bullpen session Monday, Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Ranger Suarez
(SP) day-to-day — Suarez (hamstring) is hopeful he will be ready to go for his next scheduled start, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.
Day-To-Day
G
Garrett Crochet
(SP) 15-day IL — Crochet (shoulder) was able to play catch Sunday for the first time since landing on the injured list Wednesday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Justin Slaten
(RP) 15-day IL — Slaten (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Portland on Sunday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
15-Day-IL
P
Patrick Sandoval
(SP) 15-day IL — Sandoval (biceps) underwent additional testing after being pulled from a rehab assignment, and the imaging revealed nothing alarming, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Triston Casas
(1B) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Casas (abdomen/knee) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kutter Crawford
(SP) 15-day IL — Crawford has been diagnosed with inflammation in his right elbow following an MRI, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Johan Oviedo
(SP) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Oviedo (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brendan Rodgers
(2B) out — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.
Out
H
Hobie Harris
(RP) day-to-day — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Monday that Harris has been shut down due to forearm tightness, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Romy Gonzalez
(1B) 60-day IL — Gonzalez will have his left shoulder injury evaluated Tuesday to determine whether he needs to undergo surgery, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Houck
(SP) 60-day IL — Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Detroit Tigers

G
Gleyber Torres
(2B) day-to-day — Torres (side) is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Rangers.
Day-To-Day
W
Will Vest
(RP) 15-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said Friday that Vest is "not at 100 percent" physically, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Justin Verlander
(SP) 15-day IL — Verlander (hip) is not yet asymptomatic, so he is not yet ready to begin a rehab assignment, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Troy Melton
(RP) 60-day IL — Melton (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Lakeland this weekend, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Z
Zach McKinstry
(2B) 10-day IL — McKinstry (hip) went 0-for-3 with a strikeout Thursday in his first rehab game with Single-A Lakeland.
10-Day-IL
M
Max Anderson
(2B) day-to-day — Anderson is performing well in the minors this season and will play in the Arizona Fall League, where he'll focus on defense and finding a good positional fit, Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Josue Briceno
(C) day-to-day — Briceno said Friday that he expects to be sidelined a few months after having surgery Wednesday to repair a tendon in his right wrist, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Javier Baez
(SS) 10-day IL — The Tigers placed Baez on the 10-day injured list Wednesday with a right ankle sprain.
10-Day-IL
C
Casey Mize
(SP) 15-day IL — Mize was removed from Tuesday's game against Atlanta with an apparent injury, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jackson Jobe
(SP) 60-day IL — Jobe (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Connor Seabold
(RP) 15-day IL — Detroit moved Seabold to the 15-day IL on Sunday due to left ankle inflammation, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Bailey Horn
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Horn (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Wednesday, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Beau Brieske
(RP) 60-day IL — Brieske (groin) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Parker Meadows
(CF) 60-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said that Meadows underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a left radius fracture and will be sidelined "multiple months," Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Trey Sweeney
(SS) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Sweeney (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (220)
Total Over 7.0
Key Injuries
Sonny Gray 15-Day-IL
Ranger Suarez Day-To-Day
Gleyber Torres Day-To-Day
Will Vest 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers

+6.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Boston Red Sox 60% Lean
"65% Bayesian over 7.0 (+24.5 EV) as models explode to 22.5 total vs tight market line"
68% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 68%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +17.9%
Line Movement
Current DET -240 ML / BOS +194 ML, Total 7.0, Spread N/A (DET -240 likely ML error)
Movement No significant movement
Net injury impact -1.9% favoring BOS (DET -9.7% vs BOS -7.8%)
Negative EV on ML both sides due to vig overpowering small calibrated edge; total over offers +24.5 EV
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega/MC project 10-9.5 or 11-11 explosion vs 7.0 total (65% over posterior, +24.5 EV). Whales dump $781k extreme (92%) on BOS ML amid even omega spread 0.0 and MC 50.4% DET win. Injuries hit DET harder (-1.9% net BOS); sharp ML away confirms underdog value despite juice. Pass ML EV, hammer total.
SHARP MONEY
Whales EXTREME volume ($781k, 92% on BOS) + sharp ML away moderate; overrides spread home sharp signal
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Boston Red Sox 1.5
+6.8 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Boston Red Sox None
-5.6 EV 55%
TOTAL over 7.0
+24.5 EV 60% 1.0u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Boston Red Sox 194
  • Bayesian away edge +2.7pp + extreme whale volume ($781k, 92% conviction)
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Boston Red Sox 1.5
  • MC projects DET margin +0.5 (std 4.5), BOS +1.5 covers ~58%; omega spread 0.0 confirms even matchup
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 7.0
  • Bayesian over posterior 65.2% vs 50% implied (+15.2pp); omega/MC total 22.5 vs 7.0 line
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Tigers ML +138 (55% our prob vs 42% Omega implied, +30.9 EV) + PK cover on MC +0.2 margin despite whale fade
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