Home › La Liga › Villarreal @ Mallorca
La Liga
Villarreal
Villarreal
Villarreal
Mallorca
Mallorca
Mallorca
Full Game Analysis
La Liga
Ω OMEGA PICK
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Villarreal Villarreal -0.5
EV / $100
-9.7
Win Prob
58%
Edge
+7.5%
MONEYLINE Villarreal None
57%
TOTAL under 2.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

Player Props Engine

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Villarreal

Mallorca

ELO Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
-0.6
Moneyline
MAL 109 / VIL -109
Win Probability
48% - 52%

ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.

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Villarreal @ Mallorca
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Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Villarreal @ Mallorca

+-9.7 EV
per $100 wagered
Villarreal -0.5 55% Lean
OMEGA model sees no actionable edge on this game. Tiny +0.1 EV Villarreal ML (57.5% posterior = -135 breakeven) in poor-data spot, unless improves; under 2.5 +3.1 EV
58% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 58%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +7.5%
Line Movement
Current ML: Mallorca +135 / Villarreal -135 | Spread: Mallorca -0.5 (+125 home side / -175 away side) | Total: 2.5 (-110)
Movement No significant movement detected
Marginal positive EV on Villarreal ML at -135 as posterior matches devigged market exactly
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian posterior fuses to 57.5% Villarreal win matching market exactly for 0% edge, tiny ML EV at -135 but fails 5% breakeven buffer. Spread -175 overjuices to negative EV despite alignment. Under 2.5 leans best with LaLiga ~52% over hit rate at this total, no pace/injury contras.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Villarreal -0.5 -0.5
-9.7 EV 55%
MONEYLINE Villarreal None
+0.1 EV 57%
TOTAL under 2.5
+3.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 57%
Villarreal -135
  • Bayesian posterior 57.5% barely exceeds -135 breakeven of 57.4%
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Villarreal -0.5
  • Posterior win prob 57.5% aligns with ML but spread price -175 overjuices breakeven to 63.6%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 2.5
  • LaLiga typical 2.65 gpg regresses under 2.5 total (52% historical over rate) in neutral matchup
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Tiny +0.1 EV Villarreal ML (57.5% posterior = -135 breakeven) in poor-data spot, PASS unless improves; under 2.5 +3.1 EV
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