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Portland Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers
Blazers
Denver Nuggets
Nuggets
Denver Nuggets
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK +63.3% EV
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Denver Nuggets Denver Nuggets -8.5
"Denver crushes depleted Portland (-8.5) + over 239.5 RLM; Lillard/Grant/Sharpe OUT = +12.4 EV ML edge"
EV / $100
+6.8
Win Prob
82%
Edge
+32.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Denver Nuggets None
60%
TOTAL over 239.5
67%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors over side. 21.4% divergence on total with strong signal. RLM detected on spread, total.
Sharp: over Boost: +3

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Portland Trail Blazers

Denver Nuggets

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -340 / 270 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -336 / 277 -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 24.5 (225)
Market Consensus - - Over 240.0 (-109)
Market Consensus Best Line -8.5 (-101) - -
Value Line -8.5 (-114) ↓ - -
Fair Value Fair Value 105 / -105 -312 / 312 O/U -101 / 101
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Portland Trail Blazers

V
Vit Krejci
(G) out — Krejci (calf) has been ruled out for Monday's game in Denver.
Out
J
Jerami Grant
(F) out — Grant (calf) is listed as out for Monday's game in Denver.
Out
S
Shaedon Sharpe
(G) out — Sharpe (calf) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Pelicans.
Out
D
Damian Lillard
(G) out — Lillard (Achilles) defeated Devin Booker and Kon Knueppel in the final round of Saturday's 2026 State Farm 3-Point Contest, taking home his third title.
Out

Denver Nuggets

Z
Zeke Nnaji
(F) out — Nnaji (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Monday's game against Portland.
Out
S
Spencer Jones
(F) out — Jones (hamstring) remains out for Monday's game against Portland.
Out
B
Bruce Brown
(G) day-to-day — Brown (ankle) is probable to play Monday against the Trail Blazers.
Day-To-Day
P
Peyton Watson
(G) out — Watson (hamstring) is considered week-to-week, Bennett Durando of The Denver Postreports.
Out
Game Preview
Portland Trail Blazers @ Denver Nuggets
until tip-off
Current Line
Total Over 24.5
Spread -8.5 (-101)
Key Injuries
Vit Krejci Out
Jerami Grant Out
Zeke Nnaji Out
Spencer Jones Out
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Portland Trail Blazers @ Denver Nuggets

+6.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Denver Nuggets 64% Sharp Lean
"Denver crushes depleted Portland (-8.5) + over 239.5 RLM; Lillard/Grant/Sharpe OUT = +12.4 EV ML edge"
82% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 82%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +32.0%
Line Movement
Current DEN -8.5 (-105/-115) | O/U 239.5 | ML DEN -340 / POR +270
Movement No movement data available
Denver ML +12.4 EV despite juice; spread offers +6.8 EV on home cover; total over +65% EV vs Bovada per +EV analysis
Model: 48.5% win rate | n=379 — NBA 184-195 (48.5% N=379); strong vs DEN 14-13 / POR 15-10; reduce conf due to recent 7d -50u
FULL ANALYSIS
Portland crippled by Lillard/Grant/Sharpe OUT (35+ PPG loss) faces Jokic triple-double machine at home; model projects DEN -10 fair spread vs market -8.5. Sharp RLM + 21.9% total divergence screams over 239.5 with +65% EV available. ML profitable tier but juice caps size; data quality hit reduces all conf.
SHARP MONEY
Weak sharp edge on away for ML/spread (1.6%) but strong RLM + 21.9% divergence on over total; home favored by injuries outweighs
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Denver Nuggets -8.5
+6.8 EV 64% 1u
MONEYLINE Denver Nuggets None
+4.9 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL over 239.5
+5.2 EV 67% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 60%
Denver Nuggets -450
  • 78% model win prob but -450 requires 81.8% breakeven
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Denver Nuggets -9.5
  • Denver's Jokic (27.7pts/10.8reb/13ast) vs Portland missing Lillard/Grant/Sharpe/Holiday
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 215.5
  • Portland missing 4 key scorers forces low-possession offense vs Jokic defense
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Nuggets -9.5 (+3.8EV): Jokic feasts vs Portland sans Lillard/Grant/Sharpe, model 118-108 projection
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