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San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
Padres
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
Colorado Rockies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 1.5
"Rockies +129 ML (MC 49% >44% breakeven) + over 11 Coors blowout proj 21 runs"
EV / $100
+4.2
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-4.0%
Size
1.0u
MONEYLINE Colorado Rockies None
61%
TOTAL over 11.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 1.0% divergence on ML with weak signal.
Sharp: away
Whale Activity Detected
$1509111 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong away consensus (75% of whale volume).
Whales: away Polymarket: 465 trades Kalshi: 55 trades Largest: $50496
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +156.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +13.0
Win Prob
24.2%
ML
313 / -313

Player Props Engine

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San Diego Padres

Colorado Rockies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 135 / -161 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 139 / -151 -
Value Line - 132 / -165 -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-107) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 12.0 (-112)
De-Vigged Fair Value -102 / 102 145 / -145 O/U -105 / 105
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

San Diego Padres

B
Bryan Hoeing
(RP) 60-day IL — The Padres placed Hoeing (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
G
Griffin Canning
(SP) 15-day IL — Canning (Achilles) is scheduled to make his fourth rehab start Wednesday with Triple-A El Paso, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
N
Nick Pivetta
(SP) 15-day IL — Padres manager Craig Stammen told reporters Wednesday that Pivetta was diagnosed with a right flexor strain, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joe Musgrove
(SP) 15-day IL — Musgrove (elbow) remains limited to playing catch during his throwing program and hasn't yet been cleared for bullpen sessions, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jeremiah Estrada
(RP) 15-day IL — Estrada (elbow) resumed playing light catch earlier this week, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yuki Matsui
(RP) 15-day IL — Matsui (groin) has turned in two scoreless rehab appearances at Triple-A El Paso, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yu Darvish
(SP) out — The Padres placed Darvish (elbow) on the restricted list Wednesday.
Out
W
Will Wagner
(3B) 10-day IL — The Padres placed Wagner (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
J
Jhony Brito
(RP) 60-day IL — Brito (forearm) has been throwing bullpens in Padres camp, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Hunt
(C) day-to-day — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day

Colorado Rockies

K
Kyle Freeland
(SP) 15-day IL — Freeland (shoulder) threw 41 pitches in a simulated game Wednesday, Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jeff Criswell
(RP) 60-day IL — Criswell (elbow) will face live hitters over the weekend and begin a rehab assignment shortly thereafter, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
McCade Brown
(SP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Brown (shoulder) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
R
RJ Petit
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Pierson Ohl
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Case Williams
(SP) day-to-day — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brayan Castillo
(RP) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Thomas
(CF) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Kris Bryant
(DH) 60-day IL — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 1.5 (-107)
Total Over 12.0
Key Injuries
Bryan Hoeing 60-Day-IL
Griffin Canning 15-Day-IL
Kyle Freeland 15-Day-IL
Jeff Criswell 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies

+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Colorado Rockies 64% Sharp Lean Calibrated
"Rockies +129 ML (MC 49% >44% breakeven) + over 11 Coors blowout proj 21 runs"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -4.0%
Line Movement
Current Padres ML -156 / Rockies ML +129, Run Line Padres -1.5 (-156?), Total 11.0
Movement No significant line movement detected
+EV on Rockies ML at +129 (46% our prob > 43.7% breakeven); neg EV on Padres side per Market Consensus fair value
FULL ANALYSIS
MC 10k sims project 10.6-10.2 Rockies edge (49.1% win) vs market 43.7% implied at +129, omega spread 0.0 confirms even matchup despite Padres juice. Coors altitude drives 20.8 projected total vs 11.0 line (+35% over bias). Whale extreme away (-conf) + sharp away contradict but Tier 1 MC high conf anchors home value; degraded data caps sizing.
SHARP MONEY
Weak 1.0% sharp edge on away ML; RLM absent
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Colorado Rockies 1.5
+4.2 EV 64% 1.0u
MONEYLINE Colorado Rockies None
+3.1 EV 61% 0.5u
TOTAL over 11.0
+28.4 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 61%
Colorado Rockies 129
  • MC 49.1% home win prob exceeds 43.7% breakeven at +129 by 5.4%
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Colorado Rockies 1.5
  • Omega independent spread at 0.0 vs market heavy Padres pricing indicates even matchup value on Rockies +1.5
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 11.0
  • Coors altitude +35% over bias, MC projected 20.8 total (over 11 ~92% prob) vs market 11.0
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Padres ML -156 +4.8 EV (64% our prob vs 60.9% breakeven) w/ extreme whales + Coors over 11 (20.8 proj total)
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