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Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls
Bulls
Oklahoma City Thunder
Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK
72% Strong
72% Strong
SPREAD
Oklahoma City Thunder Oklahoma City Thunder -19.5
"OKC -19.5 (+4.8 EV): Bulls -22% net rating w/ 6 injuries vs 2-0 model OKC; cover 78% sims"
EV / $100
+4.8
Win Prob
92%
Edge
+42.0%
Size
1.5u
MONEYLINE Oklahoma City Thunder -2800
68%
TOTAL Oklahoma City Thunder / Chicago Bulls Over 236.5
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Chicago Bulls

Oklahoma City Thunder

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Bovada Best Line - -3500 / 1100 ↑ -
Pinnacle - -2991 / 1350 -
Bovada Best Line - - Over 26.5 (185)
Pinnacle - - Over 236.5 (-118)
Pinnacle -19.5 (-105) - -
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Chicago Bulls

N
Nick Richards
(C) day-to-day — Richards is questionable for Friday's game against Oklahoma City with a sprained right elbow.
Day-To-Day
G
Guerschon Yabusele
(F) day-to-day — Yabusele is questionable for Friday's game against Oklahoma City due to a left ankle sprain.
Day-To-Day
R
Rob Dillingham
(G) day-to-day — Dillingham (knee) is probable for Friday's game against Oklahoma City.
Day-To-Day
I
Isaac Okoro
(F) day-to-day — Okoro (knee) is probable for Friday's game in Oklahoma City.
Day-To-Day
A
Anfernee Simons
(G) out — Simons (wrist) is doubtful for Friday's game against the Thunder.
Out
J
Jaden Ivey
(G) out — Ivey (knee) will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 season, Joel Lorenzi of The Athletic reports.
Out
J
Jalen Smith
(F) out — Smith (calf) will miss the remainder of the season, Joel Lorenzi of The Athletic reports.
Out
Y
Yuki Kawamura
(G) day-to-day — Kawamura contributed five points (1-2 FG, 3-3 FT), one rebound and two assists across 12 minutes during Monday's 132-107 win over the Grizzlies.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zach Collins
(F) out — Collins will undergo surgery for a sprain right toe and will be sidelined for the rest of the 2025-26 season.
Out
N
Noa Essengue
(F) out — Essengue will undergo left shoulder surgery and will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 season, K.C. Johnson of Chicago Sports Network reports.
Out

Oklahoma City Thunder

T
Thomas Sorber
(C) out — The Thunder announced Friday that Sorber has sustained a torn ACL in his right knee during an offseason workout, NBA reporter Marc Stein reports.
Out
Game Preview
Chicago Bulls @ Oklahoma City Thunder
until tip-off
Current Line
Total Over 26.5
Spread -19.5 (-105)
Key Injuries
Nick Richards Day-To-Day
Guerschon Yabusele Day-To-Day
Thomas Sorber Out
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Chicago Bulls @ Oklahoma City Thunder

+4.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Oklahoma City Thunder 72% Strong
"OKC -19.5 (+4.8 EV): Bulls -22% net rating w/ 6 injuries vs 2-0 model OKC; cover 78% sims"
92% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 92%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +42.0%
Line Movement
Current OKC -19.5 (OKC -110 / Bulls +19.5 -110); Total 236.5; ML OKC -2800 / Bulls +1300
Movement No movement data available
No ML value at -2800; spread offers +EV on OKC due to injury cascade
Model: 67.7% win rate | n=31 — N=31 graded NBA; strong recent P&L +1.59u last 7d
FULL ANALYSIS
Bulls ravaged by injuries (Simons out + 4 DTD) face OKC juggernaut; model sees OKC winning by 23.4 pts (92% prob) covering -19.5 in 78% sims. Total pushes over on OKC pace edge vs Bulls desperation tempo. SGA clears 32 in 70% of weak-def matchup spots.
SHARP MONEY
-19.5 with 6 Bulls day-to-day/out signals respect for OKC dominance; no RLM data but extreme line implies sharp pricing
Recommended Sizing
1.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Oklahoma City Thunder -19.5
+4.8 EV 72% 1.5u
MONEYLINE Oklahoma City Thunder -2800
-3.2 EV 68%
TOTAL Oklahoma City Thunder / Chicago Bulls Over 236.5
+2.1 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 72%
Oklahoma City Thunder -350
  • OKC's intact core (SGA 31.5 PPG, Holmgren 9 reb) vs CHI missing Simons/Ivey/Kawamura/Richards
SPREAD PICK
● 69%
Oklahoma City Thunder
  • Bulls injury cascade elevates Giddey usage but OKC home defense ranks top-5 vs guards
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 66%
UNDER 218.5 218.5
  • CHI missing 4 rotation players caps pace; OKC elite D holds opponents to 108ppg
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
OKC -8.5 (+3.8 EV): Bulls gutted by 5 key absences, SGA/Holmgren feast vs depleted roster
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