La Liga
Athletic Club
Club
Alavés
Alavés
Whale Activity Detected
$3291 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong away consensus (100% of whale volume).
Whales: away
Polymarket: 6 trades
Largest: $548
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAAthletic Club
Alavés
Model Lines
MODELSpread
1.8
Moneyline
ALA -130
/
ATH 130
Win Probability
56%
-
44%
Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Athletic Club @ Alavés
+54.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Athletic Club
62%
Lean
"Athletic Club -0.5 +145 (63% prob, +54 EV) as priced dog despite ML edge, whales align"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
63%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+13.0%
Line Movement
Current
Athletic Club -0.5 (+145) / Alavés +0.5 (-205); ML Athletic Club -160 / Alavés +170; Total 2.5
Movement
No significant line movement detected
+EV on away spread due to +145 pricing vs 63% model prob (breakeven 40.8%)
FULL ANALYSIS
Away posterior 63% matches devigged ML but spread +145 offers 54 EV/100 vs breakeven 41%. Minor whales on away confirm weak signal amid no movement/injuries. Totals unprofitable historically, pass with no pace data.
SHARP MONEY
Minor whale volume ($3,291, 1 wallet, 100% on away) provides weak confirmation
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
62%
Athletic Club -160
- Posterior 63% exceeds vigged implied 61.5%, marginal ML value
SPREAD PICK
○
62%
Athletic Club -0.5
- Model posterior 63% away win vs +145 spread odds (breakeven 40.8%), massive edge on priced-as-dog spread
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
55%
UNDER 2.5
- LaLiga avg ~2.7 goals, no pace data but historical totals losing (48.7% WR)
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Athletic Club ML -160: 63% posterior beats 61.5% breakeven (+2.4 EV) w/ minor whales
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