Moneyline: Como (-380)
WIN · Recorded 2026-10-31T07:34:19.114152 UTC
NO EDGE — PASS: breakeven at -380 is 79.2% and our posterior is exactly 79.2%, below the required +5% cushion; no ML bet
Serie A
Venezia
Venezia
0
-
1
Final
Como
Como
Player Props Results
Final Box ScoreVenezia
Como
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Recorded picks and reasons
These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.
Player Prop: over (-110)
PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-30T13:11:30.644636 UTC
Model projection (no bookmaker line): 5 goals in 9 matches, high-usage No. 9 for a 78.3% favorite at home; thin sample (N=9), so confidence capped at 58 with unvalidated roster
Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS
Venezia @ Como
+11.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Como
61%
Lean
"Como -1.5 at -130 is the only real number in this game: -380 ML desks break even at exactly our 79.2% posterior, but a 6-2-1 home side vs a 1-0-8 visitor covers 2+ about 72% of the time — 0.5u LEAN."
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
79%
Book Implied
79%
Edge
0.0%
Line Movement
Current
Como -1.5 (-130 home side), total 3.5, ML Como -380 / Venezia +800
Movement
No significant line movement detected
FULL ANALYSIS
Como -380 is pure vig: the Bayesian posterior is exactly 79.2%, matching breakeven with zero cushion, so the only playable line is the -1.5 at -130, where implied 56.5% sits well under a ~72% spread-weighted estimate of a side that's 6-2-1 against a 1-0-8 Venezia. Kalshi's 75.5% agrees with DC in the direction (no contrarian flag either way for the spread). Data is 38% available and SERIEA spread is an unvalidated cell, so it ships as 0.5u LEAN 61 — no OMEGA_LOCK inside 1000mi of this file.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
54%
Como -380
- NO EDGE — PASS: breakeven at -380 is 79.2% and our posterior is exactly 79.2%, below the required +5% cushion; no ML bet
SPREAD PICK
○
61%
Como -1.5
- DGV posterior ~72% to win by 2+ vs 56.5% implied at -130; Venezia are 1-0-8 and Como have won 6 of 9 behind Nico Paz's 3 assists and Douvikas' 5 goals
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
56%
UNDER 3.5
- Venezia's 1-0-8 and heavy away losses profile points to low-event games; marginal number-fair total, but totals are our weakest market (48.7% WR) so this is min-units only
About This Analysis
DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
No edge at -360 ML (posterior 78.3% = breakeven), so the play is Como -1.5 at -135 at 0.5u with 29% data quality capping conviction
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