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La Liga
Mallorca
Mallorca
Mallorca
Girona
Girona
Girona
Full Game Analysis
La Liga
Ω OMEGA PICK
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Girona Girona -0.5
"Coinflip LaLiga matchup, 48.8% home posterior vs market aligns—lean Girona -0.5 (-105) +0.8 EV on venue"
EV / $100
+0.8
Win Prob
49%
Edge
-1.2%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Girona None
55%
TOTAL under 2.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Mallorca

Girona

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
-1.9
Moneyline
GIR 131 / MAL -131
Win Probability
43% - 57%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
Mallorca @ Girona
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Mallorca @ Girona

+0.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Girona 55% Lean
"Coinflip LaLiga matchup, 48.8% home posterior vs market aligns—lean Girona -0.5 (-105) +0.8 EV on venue"
49% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 49%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -1.2%
Line Movement
Current Girona -0.5 (-105) / Mallorca +0.5 (-135); ML Girona -105 / Mallorca +265; Total 2.5 (-110)
Movement No significant movement
Neutral to negative EV on home side matching calibrated; no edge after de-vig
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian posterior pegs Girona home win at 48.8% matching de-vigged market prior—no quant edge in 10k MC absent data. Both sides mediocre (9 wins apiece), stable lines, neutral weather/situational factors cap upside. Home venue tilts spread/ML leans; under 2.5 fits low gpg rates but totals WR 50.6% historically.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Girona -0.5
+0.8 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Girona None
+0.5 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL under 2.5
+0.9 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Girona -105
  • Home win posterior 48.8% aligns with market de-vig prior; Girona 9-11-13 record but venue edge
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Girona -0.5
  • LaLiga home teams cover -0.5 in 51% of matches; posterior 48.8% close to de-vigged implied despite poor records
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 2.5
  • Both teams ~1.0 gpg avg (Girona 9W/33G, Mallorca 9W); totals historically losing WR 50.6% in leans
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
No true edge (0pp Bayesian); marginal vig EV on Mallorca ML +265 at 51.2% posterior vs 27.4% vigged implied.
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