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MLB
New York Mets
New York Mets
Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +21.5% EV ALIGNED
51% Lean
51% Lean
SPREAD
New York Mets New York Mets 1.5
"Mets-Phillies over 8.0: Bayesian model shows +15.2pp edge, 24.5% EV, but degraded data limits confidence to lean."
EV / $100
+2.9
Win Prob
64%
Edge
-3.1%
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Phillies None
61%
TOTAL over 8.0
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 9.7% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1436958 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 610 trades Kalshi: 207 trades Largest: $150318
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
42.6%
ML
135 / -135

Player Props Engine

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New York Mets

Philadelphia Phillies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -208 / 169 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -195 / 174 -
Value Line - -195 / 155 -
Sharp Action Best Line -2.5 (165) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (111) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-111)
De-Vigged Fair Value 118 / -118 -186 / 186 O/U -104 / 104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Mets

C
Christian Scott
(SP) 15-day IL — Scott (hip) threw a bullpen session Saturday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Tyrone Taylor
(CF) 10-day IL — Taylor (hip) will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A Binghamton on Friday, Abbey Mastracco of the New York Daily News reports.
10-Day-IL
F
Francisco Lindor
(SS) 10-day IL — Lindor (calf) will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A Binghamton on Friday, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Christian Arroyo
(2B) day-to-day — The Mets re-signed Arroyo to a minor-league contract Tuesday.
Day-To-Day
R
Ryan Lambert
(RP) day-to-day — Triple-A Syracuse placed Lambert on the 7-day injured list June 4 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
R
Ronny Mauricio
(SS) 10-day IL — Mauricio (thumb) could begin a rehab assignment later this week, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jorge Polanco
(1B) 60-day IL — An MRI on Polanco's left ankle/Achilles tendon came back negative Tuesday, Andrew Tredinnick of The Bergen Record reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Mike Baumann
(RP) day-to-day — Baumann signed a minor-league deal with the Mets on Wednesday, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.
Day-To-Day
L
Luis Robert Jr.
(CF) 60-day IL — Robert (spine) said Thursday that his back has been responding better in recent days and he expects to return before the end of this season, Chelsea Janes of SNY.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Waddell
(RP) day-to-day — Waddell (shoulder) picked up the win after allowing three runs on four hits while striking out two across three innings during Saturday's game against Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre.
Day-To-Day
C
Clay Holmes
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets transferred Holmes (fibula) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) day-to-day — Tauchman (knee) is still rehabbing at the Mets' spring training complex and has yet to resume baseball activities, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Joe Jacques
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kevin Herget
(RP) day-to-day — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Nunez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.
60-Day-IL
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
J
Jose Rojas
(3B) day-to-day — Triple-A Salt Lake placed Rojas on its COVID-19 injured list Sunday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Megill (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Philadelphia Phillies

A
Adolis Garcia
(RF) 60-day IL — Garcia will undergo season-ending surgery Wednesday to repair a torn right lat.
60-Day-IL
L
Liover Peguero
(SS) day-to-day — The Phillies reassigned Peguero to minor-league camp Sunday.
Day-To-Day
A
Andrew Bechtold
(3B) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
B
Brad Keller
(RP) 15-day IL — Keller picked up the save Wednesday against the Athletics, allowing no runs on one hit and two walks in the ninth inning. He struck out one.
15-Day-IL
J
Johan Rojas
(CF) out — Rojas (suspension) will miss the remainder of the season after suffering a right elbow UCL tear that will require an internal brace procedure.
Out
K
Kyle Backhus
(RP) 15-day IL — Backhus (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
A
Andrew Walling
(RP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
C
Carson DeMartini
(SS) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
D
Daniel Robert
(RP) day-to-day — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mark Kolozsvary
(C) day-to-day — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -2.5 (165)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Christian Scott 15-Day-IL
Tyrone Taylor 10-Day-IL
Adolis Garcia 60-Day-IL
Liover Peguero Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies

+2.9 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Mets 51% Lean
"Mets-Phillies over 8.0: Bayesian model shows +15.2pp edge, 24.5% EV, but degraded data limits confidence to lean."
64% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 64%
Book Implied 67%
Edge -3.1%
Line Movement
Current -1.5 / 8.0 / -207
Movement No significant movement
Negative EV on home moneyline; no edge.
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion shows a strong over signal (65.2% vs 50% market) despite very low model agreement and degraded data quality. Sharp money on home spread and extreme whale volume on home side do not align with total direction. With 24.5% EV per $100 on Over 8.0, the model edge outweighs contextual uncertainty, but reduced unit size is warranted.
SHARP MONEY
16.3% sharp edge on spread favoring home (strong), plus extreme whale volume on home side.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD New York Mets 1.5
+2.9 EV 51%
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Phillies None
-9.6 EV 61%
TOTAL over 8.0
+24.5 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 61%
Philadelphia Phillies -207
SPREAD PICK
○ 51%
New York Mets 1.5
  • Posterior away cover at 53.9% vs 50% market implied, but degraded data reduces confidence below threshold
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 62%
OVER 8.0
  • Bayesian fusion shows 65.2% over probability vs 50% market implied, +15.2pp edge
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Phillies moneyline at -118 shows sharp support but degraded data caps confidence to LEAN.
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