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MLB
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
New York Mets
Mets
New York Mets
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +24.7% EV ALIGNED
52% Lean
52% Lean
SPREAD
New York Mets New York Mets 1.5
"Bayesian model loves Phillies ML (+3.1% EV) and over 8.0 (+26.9% EV), but sharp money and whales are all-in on Mets – avoid this game unless you heavily weigh quantitative models over market signals."
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
61%
Edge
+1.3%
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Phillies None
58%
TOTAL over 8.0
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 11.3% divergence on ML with strong signal. RLM detected on moneyline.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$2602538 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (76% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 791 trades Kalshi: 217 trades Largest: $96704
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: -1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
29.9%
ML
234 / -234

Player Props Engine

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Philadelphia Phillies

New York Mets

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 126 / -150 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -128 / 118 -
Value Line - 120 / -150 -
Market Consensus -1.5 (156) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (100)
De-Vigged Fair Value 166 / -166 -123 / 123 O/U 106 / -106
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies

J
Johan Rojas
(CF) 60-day IL — Rojas (suspension) underwent surgery Friday to repair the UCL in his right elbow and will face an expected recovery timeline of 6-to-8 months, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Adolis Garcia
(RF) 60-day IL — The Phillies announced that Garcia underwent successful surgery Wednesday to repair a torn right lat, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
60-Day-IL
L
Liover Peguero
(SS) day-to-day — The Phillies reassigned Peguero to minor-league camp Sunday.
Day-To-Day
A
Andrew Bechtold
(3B) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
B
Brad Keller
(RP) 15-day IL — Keller picked up the save Wednesday against the Athletics, allowing no runs on one hit and two walks in the ninth inning. He struck out one.
15-Day-IL
A
Andrew Walling
(RP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
C
Carson DeMartini
(SS) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
D
Daniel Robert
(RP) day-to-day — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mark Kolozsvary
(C) day-to-day — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day

New York Mets

J
Jorge Polanco
(1B) 60-day IL — Polanco (Achilles) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Syracuse on Saturday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — Nunez (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A St. Lucie on Thursday, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Marcus Semien
(2B) 10-day IL — Semien went 2-for-4 with a triple and two RBI in Thursday's win over the Phillies.
10-Day-IL
L
Luis Robert Jr.
(CF) 60-day IL — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Robert "looked normal" while taking a full session of batting practice in the cages Tuesday, Max Goodman of NJ.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Christian Arroyo
(2B) day-to-day — The Mets re-signed Arroyo to a minor-league contract Tuesday.
Day-To-Day
R
Ryan Lambert
(RP) day-to-day — Triple-A Syracuse placed Lambert on the 7-day injured list June 4 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
M
Mike Baumann
(RP) day-to-day — Baumann signed a minor-league deal with the Mets on Wednesday, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brandon Waddell
(RP) day-to-day — Waddell (shoulder) picked up the win after allowing three runs on four hits while striking out two across three innings during Saturday's game against Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre.
Day-To-Day
C
Clay Holmes
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets transferred Holmes (fibula) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) day-to-day — Tauchman (knee) is still rehabbing at the Mets' spring training complex and has yet to resume baseball activities, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Joe Jacques
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kevin Herget
(RP) day-to-day — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
J
Jose Rojas
(3B) day-to-day — Triple-A Salt Lake placed Rojas on its COVID-19 injured list Sunday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Megill (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Robert Stock
(RP) out — Stock (shoulder) said Sunday that he'll require surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome and could be sidelined for the remainder of the season, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
Out
Game Preview
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (156)
Total Over 9.0
Key Injuries
Johan Rojas 60-Day-IL
Adolis Garcia 60-Day-IL
Jorge Polanco 60-Day-IL
Dedniel Nunez 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets

+3.19 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Mets 52% Lean
"Bayesian model loves Phillies ML (+3.1% EV) and over 8.0 (+26.9% EV), but sharp money and whales are all-in on Mets – avoid this game unless you heavily weigh quantitative models over market signals."
61% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 61%
Book Implied 60%
Edge +1.3%
Line Movement
Open Not available
Current Moneyline: Home +123 / Away -149; Spread: 1.5 (home +1.5); Total: 8.0
Movement No significant line movement detected.
calibrated model suggests away ML has +3.1% EV relative to market, but sharp signals contradict. Proceed with caution.
FULL ANALYSIS
The Bayesian model sees value on Phillies moneyline at -149 and over 8.0 total, but sharp money and whale signals heavily favor the Mets. The model's edge on the total is enormous (+15.2pp) but likely inflated by corrupted Omega projections. With data quality at 68%, these picks carry elevated risk. The only bet with real sharp corroboration is the Mets spread (+1.5), but that edge is minimal after adjustments. Proceed with caution – the contradictory signals suggest a no-play unless forced.
SHARP MONEY
11.3% sharp edge on home ML with RLM. +EV analysis shows +24.7% EV on home ML at retail books. Whale signals also favor home with $2.5M volume.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD New York Mets 1.5
+3.2 EV 52%
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Phillies None
+3.1 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.0
+26.9 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Philadelphia Phillies -149
  • Bayesian fusion gives Phillies 61.1% win probability vs 59.8% implied by -149 odds, a +1.3pp edge after vig
SPREAD PICK
○ 52%
New York Mets 1.5
  • Bayesian posterior gives Mets +1.5 a 53.9% cover probability, yielding +3.2% EV at -110
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 62%
OVER 8.0
  • Bayesian posterior gives over 65.2% probability vs 50% implied, a massive +15.2pp edge
  • However, data quality is poor and totals are our weakest market
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Bayesian model sees 65.2% over probability on total 8.0, strong edge despite data quality concerns.
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