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MLB
Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals
Royals
New York Yankees
Yankees
New York Yankees
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +46.3% EV EARLY VALUE
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 2.2
"Royals +153 ML +36.6 EV: Omega even vs -2.2 market shade, extreme whales + Yankees injuries -11%"
EV / $100
+8.4
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-4.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Kansas City Royals None
66%
TOTAL under 8.5
59%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 15.1% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$546073 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 204 trades Kalshi: 46 trades Largest: $40368
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +2.2
Total
24.0
Edge: +15.5
Win Prob
31.3%
ML
220 / -220

Player Props Engine

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Kansas City Royals

New York Yankees

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -174 / 143 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -165 / 148 -
Value Line - -165 / 132 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (245) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (127) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-113)
De-Vigged Fair Value 136 / -136 -157 / 157 O/U -105 / 105
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Kansas City Royals

B
Bailey Falter
(RP) 15-day IL — Falter (elbow) allowed two runs on three hits and a walk over one inning with Triple-A Omaha on Wednesday. He struck out one.
15-Day-IL
S
Stephen Kolek
(SP) 15-day IL — Kolek (oblique) allowed no runs on three hits and a walk over four innings during a rehab start with Triple-A Omaha on Tuesday. He struck out two.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Estevez
(RP) 15-day IL — Royals president of baseball operations J.J. Picollo said Tuesday on 96.5 The Fan that he's hopeful Estevez (foot) will be ready to begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Omaha within the next five days.
15-Day-IL
T
Tyson Guerrero
(RP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
A
Anthony Simonelli
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
J
Javier Vaz
(2B) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
J
James McArthur
(RP) 15-day IL — McArthur (elbow) is expected to resume a throwing program Monday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
A
Alec Marsh
(SP) 60-day IL — The Royals placed Marsh (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL

New York Yankees

C
Carlos Rodon
(SP) 15-day IL — Manager Aaron Boone said Thursday that Rodon (elbow/hamstring) will likely begin a rehab assignment following Saturday's live batting practice session, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Gerrit Cole
(SP) 15-day IL — Cole (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A Somerset on Friday, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Anthony Volpe
(SS) 10-day IL — Volpe (shoulder) is slated to begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Somerset on Tuesday, Erik Boland of Newsday reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Rafael Montero
(RP) out — Montero continues to have visa issues and hasn't yet arrived at Yankees camp, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
Out
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor signed a minor-league contract with the Angels on Monday.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (245)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Bailey Falter 15-Day-IL
Stephen Kolek 15-Day-IL
Carlos Rodon 15-Day-IL
Gerrit Cole 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees

+8.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Kansas City Royals 64% Sharp Lean Calibrated
"Royals +153 ML +36.6 EV: Omega even vs -2.2 market shade, extreme whales + Yankees injuries -11%"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -4.0%
Line Movement
Current Yankees -2.2 / Royals +2.2 | Total 8.5 | Yankees -185 / Royals +153
Movement No significant movement
Royals ML +153 offers +36.6 EV at 46% win prob vs 39.5% breakeven (exceeds by 6.5%)
Model: 51.8% win rate | n=552 — ML profitable; spreads lean profitable; N=552 MLB-adjusted
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega even spread (0.0) vs market Yankees -2.2 + MC 46.2% Royals win = value on +153 ML (36.6 EV). Extreme $292k whales (39 wallets) on Royals + Bayesian -11% edge away despite home injuries -11%. Under 8.5 hits 72.8% MC but cap due to totals 48.7% WR.
SHARP MONEY
ML sharp edge 1.3% away + whales extreme volume on Royals; spread sharp home but Pinnacle fair away cover 56.1%
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Kansas City Royals 2.2
+8.4 EV 64% 1u
MONEYLINE Kansas City Royals None
+36.6 EV 66% 1u
TOTAL under 8.5
+4.2 EV 59% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 66%
Kansas City Royals 153
  • Bayesian edge -11% favoring Royals + MC 46.2% away win vs market 35.1%
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Kansas City Royals 2.2
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market -2.2 + MC even margin (-0.0) = Royals cover +2.2 in 54% sims
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 59%
UNDER 8.5
  • MC under 72.8% at 24.0 total vs market 8.5; historical totals losing WR
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Yankees +188 ML +42 EV (MC 50.8% win vs 34.7% implied); MC 75.7% under 24.0 despite whale fade
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