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San Diego Padres
Injury Report
Arizona Diamondbacks
Merrill Kelly
(SP)
out — The Diamondbacks will place Kelly (back) on the 15-day injured list to begin the regular season, Alex D'Agostino of SI.com reports.
Out
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
(LF)
out — Gurriel (knee) is not expected to appear in a Cactus League game, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
Out
Corbin Burnes
(SP)
60-day IL — Burnes (elbow) threw a bullpen session Monday, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Adrian Del Castillo
(C)
out — Del Castillo (calf) has begun hitting in cages and catching bullpen sessions, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports.
Out
Cristian Mena
(RP)
out — Mena (shoulder) has continued his throwing program, but he has yet to throw off a mound, Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com reports.
Out
Tyler Locklear
(1B)
out — Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said Sunday that Locklear (shoulder/elbow) is trending toward a return around mid-May to early June, Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com reports.
Out
A.J. Puk
(RP)
60-day IL — The Diamondbacks placed Puk (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.
60-Day-IL
Justin Martinez
(RP)
60-day IL — Martinez (elbow) hopes to make his season debut by late August, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Andrew Saalfrank
(RP)
60-day IL — Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports.
60-Day-IL
Derek Law
(RP)
out — Law (forearm) signed a minor-league contract with the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, Aaron Hughes of SI.com reports.
Out
Kyle Amendt
(RP)
out — Amendt underwent shoulder surgery Tuesday, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports.
Out
Tommy Henry
(RP)
out — The Diamondbacks re-signed Henry (elbow) to a minor-league contract Monday.
Out
Blake Walston
(SP)
out — The Diamondbacks placed Walston (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.
Out
San Diego Padres
Sung-Mun Song
(3B)
out — Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports Saturday that Song will open the 2026 regular season on the injured list due to a right oblique strain.
Out
Jason Adam
(RP)
day-to-day — Adam (quadriceps) pitched a perfect inning with one strikeout against Colorado in a Cactus League appearance Friday.
Day-To-Day
Yuki Matsui
(RP)
out — Manager Craig Stammen said Friday that Matsui (groin) will begin the season on the injured list, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports.
Out
Joe Musgrove
(SP)
out — Musgrove (elbow) has had his workload eased back after pitching against Team Great Britain on March 4, and it's uncertain if he'll be ramped up in time for Opening Day, per MLB.com.
Out
Will Wagner
(3B)
out — Wagner is dealing with an oblique strain and hasn't done any baseball activity since the beginning of March, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Out
Matt Waldron
(SP)
out — Waldron (lower body) threw "about 25 pitches" in a live batting-practice session Thursday, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Out
Bryan Hoeing
(RP)
out — Hoeing (elbow) will undergo flexor tendon surgery and miss the entire 2026 season, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Out
Jhony Brito
(RP)
60-day IL — Brito (forearm) has been throwing bullpens in Padres camp, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
Griffin Canning
(SP)
out — Canning (Achilles) tossed a "high-intensity" bullpen session Tuesday, and his next step could be facing hitters, per MLB.com.
Out
Blake Hunt
(C)
day-to-day — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
San Diego Padres
67%
TOSS-UP
"Padres home at Petco w/ Dbacks missing Kelly/Gurriel, model +4.2 EV ML at -135"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
60%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+10.0%
Line Movement
Open
N/A - Early season game, no lines posted
Current
N/A
Movement
No movement - lines not available
+4.2 EV on Padres ML at estimated -135 fair line
FULL ANALYSIS
Padres get early home edge at Petco (hist +12% win rate) vs Dbacks missing Kelly (3.85 ERA) and Gurriel (.285/.785 OPS). Both bullpens banged up but park suppresses 0.45 runs/game. Model sees 60% P(SDP win), +3% edge over fair line.
Kelly Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
67%
San Diego Padres -118 (DDN_model)
- Michael King (17 K's early) vs Ryne Nelson (2.00 ERA but 16 ER allowed); King dominates high-contact matchups
SPREAD PICK
●
64%
San Diego Padres
- Padres home dominance early + Dbacks 5 key outs (Kelly/Gurriel/Mena/Del Castillo/Locklear) = 1.8 run edge projection
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
66%
UNDER 8.0 8.0
- King (elite K-rate) + Nelson (16K recent) project 7.2 runs; both teams missing offensive depth early
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Padres ML +3.2 EV: King (17K) vs Nelson + Dbacks missing 5 keys including Gurriel/Kelly
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