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Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves
Braves
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +59.0% EV
61% Lean
61% Lean
SPREAD
Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves -2.2
"Braves -2.2: sharp 17.3% + extreme whales $226k = +44.5% EV vs Pinnacle fair"
EV / $100
+4.1
Win Prob
47%
Edge
-3.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Atlanta Braves None
57%
TOTAL under 9.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.6% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$488211 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 178 trades Kalshi: 52 trades Largest: $44395

Player Props Engine

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Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -130 / 108 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -124 / 113 -
Value Line - -136 / 110 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (360) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (175) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.0 (-112)
De-Vigged Fair Value 189 / -189 -119 / 119 O/U -105 / 105
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Atlanta Braves

S
Spencer Strider
(SP) 15-day IL — Strider (oblique) allowed one hit and two walks over 3.1 scoreless innings for High-A Rome on Thursday. He struck out three.
15-Day-IL
S
Sean Murphy
(C) 10-day IL — Murphy (hip) played four innings at catcher for High-A Rome on Tuesday, going 0-for-2 at the plate.
10-Day-IL
D
Danny Young
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta transferred Young (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Burkhalter
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
A
AJ Smith-Shawver
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Smith-Shawver (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Friday.
60-Day-IL
H
Ha-Seong Kim
(SS) 10-day IL — Atlanta placed Kim (finger) on its 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
H
Hurston Waldrep
(SP) 15-day IL — Waldrep will undergo surgery Monday to remove loose bodies from his right elbow, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joey Wentz
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Wentz on the 60-day injured list Tuesday with a right ACL tear.
60-Day-IL
J
Jurickson Profar
(LF) Suspension — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
Suspension
S
Spencer Schwellenbach
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta announced that Schwellenbach underwent a procedure Wednesday to remove bone spurs from his right elbow, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Joe Jimenez
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss acknowledged Wednesday that he's uncertain if Jimenez (knee) will be available to pitch at any point in 2026, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Philadelphia Phillies

Z
Zack Wheeler
(SP) 15-day IL — Wheeler (shoulder) struck out nine and allowed four hits and no walks while allowing three runs in 5.2 innings during his fourth rehab start with Double-A Reading on Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
Z
Zach Pop
(RP) 15-day IL — Pop is slated to serve as the Phillies' opening pitcher in Sunday's game against the Diamondbacks, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jonathan Bowlan
(RP) 15-day IL — The Phillies acquired Bowlan from the Royals on Friday in exchange for Matt Strahm, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Max Lazar
(RP) 15-day IL — Lazar (oblique) is throwing bullpen sessions in Clearwater, Florida, per MLB.com.
15-Day-IL
D
Daniel Robert
(RP) day-to-day — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Keaton Anthony
(1B) day-to-day — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Andrew Bechtold
(3B) day-to-day — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.
Day-To-Day
J
Johan Rojas
(CF) Suspension — MLB announced Monday that Rojas has been suspended 80 games for violating the league's policy against performance-enhancing drugs, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
suspension
M
Michael Mercado
(RP) day-to-day — The Phillies reassigned Mercado (shoulder) to minor-league camp Thursday, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mark Kolozsvary
(C) day-to-day — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Christian McGowan
(RP) out — McGowan will miss the remainder of the season following Tommy John surgery, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Out
Game Preview
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (360)
Total Over 7.0
Key Injuries
Spencer Strider 15-Day-IL
Sean Murphy 10-Day-IL
Zack Wheeler 15-Day-IL
Zach Pop 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies

+4.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Atlanta Braves 61% Lean Calibrated
"Braves -2.2: sharp 17.3% + extreme whales $226k = +44.5% EV vs Pinnacle fair"
47% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 47%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -3.0%
Line Movement
Current Braves -2.2 (-110) / Phillies +2.2 (-110) | ML: Phillies -105 / Braves -115 | Total 9.5 (-110)
Movement No significant movement
No ML edge; value on spread away cover with +44.5% vs Pinnacle fair
Model: 51.8% win rate | n=552 — Reduce higher tiers; favor ML/spread over totals
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp models show 17.3% edge on Braves -2.2 cover vs retail, confirmed by extreme $226k whale volume (80% away). Pinnacle fair values away cover at just 39.6% but retail +265 implies massive +44.5% EV. Equal injuries (-8%) and no pitchers cap conviction; totals neutral with historical 48.7% WR drag.
SHARP MONEY
17.3% sharp edge on spread away + extreme whale volume $226k (institutional) at 80% conviction
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Atlanta Braves -2.2
+4.1 EV 61% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Atlanta Braves None
+1.2 EV 57% 0.5u
TOTAL under 9.5
+0.8 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 57%
Atlanta Braves -115
  • Whale extreme signal aligns with sharp away (breakeven 53.5%, our 57%)
SPREAD PICK
● 61%
Atlanta Braves -2.2
  • Sharp 17.3% divergence +44.5% EV on away cover vs Pinnacle fair value (39.6% implied)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 9.5
  • Neutral fair value (49.5% under) + injury drag (-8% both teams)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Institutional whales ($220k extreme vol) hammer Braves ML at -112 pick'em, +2.8 EV vs market
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